I hadn't really noticed it, but apparently there is an unwritten rule in Canadian politics that whatever Camada votes federally, the province of Ontario votes the opposite. It even has a name, the Underhill Balance Theory, after Frank Underhill, a political scientist who noticed the phenomenon way back in the 1940s.
And it does seem to work. In the heyday of the federal Liberal Party after the Second World War - Mackenzie King, Louis St Laurent, Lester B. Pearson, Pierre Elliott Trudeau - Ontario elected a series of Conservative Premiers - George Drew, Leslie Frost, John Robarts, Bill Davis - as a kind of balance.
When Conservative Brian Mulroney came to power in Ottawa in 1984, Ontario responded by voting in first Liberal David Peterson, and then NDP Bob Rae. With federal Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chrétien came Conservative Ontario Premier Mike Harris. When Conservative Stephen Harper replaced Chrétien federally, Ontario turned back to the Liberals with Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne. And with Justin Trudeau in Ottawa, of course, came Doug Ford in Toronto.
So now, as a new federal election looms, which the Conservatives are widely expected to win handily, Doug Ford - who is apparently also considering calling an Ontario election, even though he has a strong majority, good polling results, and more than 16 months before the next scheduled election! - must have the Underhill Balance Theory at the back of his mind.
Indeed, it could well be a major reason why Ford wants to bring an Ontario election so far forward: to lock in the Conservative administration in Ontario notwithstanding a potential Conservative federal government, to break the Underhill jinx (as Ford might see it).
No comments:
Post a Comment