Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is still a very popular guy nearly two years after taking office (and that's not an easy task in fickle Canada). But the signs are that he has already lost his way.
He was voted in to power as a Liberal, and as someone who, it was hoped, could stand up to the depredations of Donald Trump. Since March 2025, he has governed as a conservative, taking the remaining wind out of the sails of an already-weak Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre, and has gradually re-modelled the Liberal party around him.
From abandoning carbon tax to expediting oil and gas pipelines, Carney has shown a Trumpian "drill, baby, drill" attitude to resource extraction. It didn't end there: he called for the wholesale privatization of airports, vastly increased spending on defence, tax cuts like the Productivity Mega Deduction and the Canada Growth Incentive, and cuts to spending on the civil service, all areas that used to be the province of conservative governments. Some have dubbed it the "Carney Doctrine".
More recently, though, a few measures suggest that he is willing to take his conservatism still further, perhaps further than even Poilievre might have done.
Exhibit No. 1: A line item hidden deep in the latest federal budget, allocates a millions of dollars to "exploring" the idea of lifting the moratorium on offshore oil and gas exploration in the western Arctic. Imposed by the Trudeau Liberal administration in 2016, the moratorium is stictly about environmentalism (constraining our carbon footprint and protecting the fragile Arctic ecosystem from development and potential oilspills), but Mr. Carney has left environmental responsibility long behind him in his rush toward development, particularly of the oil and gas sectors. Donald Trump did the same for the Arctic waters of Alaska. Are we now in the same boat as Trump? Carney says it's not about lifting the moratorium at all, but then why the need to explore it? He also says it's about "respecting the environment". Yeah, right!
Exhibit No. 2: Playing fast and loose with immigration and immigration statistics. (Now, where did he get that from, if not from Trump?) Soon after taking power, Carney slashed the official immigration targets. After all, he was elected on a platform of reigning in Justin Trudeau's admittedly out-of-control immigration policy. Now, though, he has announced that he plans to grant permanent residency to 200,000 temporary residents already in Canada, on a "one-off" basis, and that 200,000 (plus an additional 82,000 left over from a similar measure last year) is somehow not included in the allocation of 380,000 permanent residents already announced for 2026. So, we will end up with a total of about 680,000 this year, way more than the Trudeau administration ever dreamed of. Personally, I don't have a problem with this - we need more immigrants - but it is definitely evidence of Carney talking out of both sides of his mouth.
Has Carney lost the plot? That depends on what you think the plot is. The Carney Doctrine is all about "strategic autonomy".and "values-based realism" (with the values left conveniemtly vague). But it's also about re-setting expectations and, more recently, dressing up the wolf in sheep's clothing. As Iago said, so long ago, "Ha! I like not that!"
