Is AI really an existential threat?

I don't remember reading the word "existential" so frequently since I made my Basics of Philosophy hobby website many years ago. Just recently, though, it seems to be ubiquitous, usually in the same sentence as AI or artificial intelligence. "AI could pose existential risk to humanity, UN rights chief warns". "Is the AI existential threat real?". "Breaking down the dire warnings about the technology's existential risk". Etc, etc.

Much of this has been galvanized by the online parting shot by 27-year old Anthropic junior researcher Jacob Coxon as he quit his plum job with one of the leading AI companies: "The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade." His comments gained still more attention when current (and more senior) Anthropic employee Evan Hubinger confirmed on X: "We really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally believe it is >10% within the next decade." That's quite an admission from one of the leading lights in AI development.

This is not new, of course. The "Godfather of AI" Geoffrey Hinton has been warning us about this stuff for years. Isaac Asimov was cautioning us back in the 1940s! What is new is that the current crop of warnings are coming from the developers themselves. So, we should probably take it seriously, don't you think? After all, it's not often that the ambitious tech bros behind companies like Anthropic and OpenAI agree on anything.

Since literally hundreds of OpenAI agents escaped human control and their so-called "sandbox" in July and hacked the secure systems of a billion dollar company, almost all of the major American AI development companies have come out to warn that severe regulation is needed before it is too late. (See the list of over a hundred signatories at the end of this document, and yes, it includes OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Google, and a virtual who's who of AI development.) 1,386 "frontier" AI employees penned their own warning letter, urging the US government to work with other nations to "deliberately pace" automated AI development and to address emerging risks.

Leading experts openly admit that they don't know how to control future highly capable AI systems, known as "artificial superintelligence" or ASI. Some argue that it may actually be impossible or too late, and that the genie is already out of the proverbial bottle. The concern is that AI technology is progressing at such a breakneck pace that "we would no longer be able to detect them or stop them". This could happen within a few short years, or even months.

Senate negotiators in the US are already debating legislation that would put the responsibility on tech companies to design safe AI products and establishing a "duty of care", but it's unclear how useful such legislation might be in practical terms. Other legislation in the works would require AI companies to build in a "kill switch" to their AI developments which the government could order to be triggered.

Unfortunately, the US government is effectively controlled by one man, Donald Trump, and he derides all calls for AI regulations as a "hoax" and a "scam". All he cares about is AI's potential as the "Greatest Economic Development in History", and the imperative that America must beat China to it. Regulation is a dirty word in his mind. 

As for AI presenting an "existential threat"? Pshaw! Existential schmexistential.

Pope Leo checks his progressivism at the shrine door

Pope Leo XIV has the reputation of being a pretty progressive Pope. But, lest we forget, that's not actually saying much. Official Catholic doctrine, which he has to more or less follow whether he likes it or not, is still ineluctably stuck in the distant past, and nowhere more so than on moral issues like abortion, euthanasia and medical assiatance in dying (MAID).

At the moment, he is in Lourdes, a pilgrimage site synonymous with miracles, orthodoxy and retrogressive Catholic tradition. At the same time, he is in France - forward-looking, liberal, fiercely secular France. So, I guess he felt the need to make a statement to the remaining faithful. It's his job after all.

In particular, he has made a strong statement agaist MAID, especially given France's 2024 decision to make abortion a constitutional right, and last month's decision to also make medical assistance in dying a legal right. France is far from the first country to do so, although the list is still relatively short, consisting of the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland and, of course, Canada. (13 American states have also passed legislation allowing it.)

Leo's take on all this? Well, after the now obligatory condemnation of centuries of Catholic Church sexual abuse, his broadside against MAID went like this: "It is impossible to regard causing death as something normal. What is legal is not necessarily moral." Furthermore, "It is precisely in the name of this inalienable dignity of the human person that we must reject the temptation to cause death under the guise of false compassion."

So, there you have it: MAID is "false compassion". Try telling that to the thousands of people who have had their life sentences of constant pain and anguish commuted by access to MAID in those forward-thinking countries where it is legal. Try telling that to their families. Try telling them what is moral and what is compassionate.

Like many a Pope before him, Leo has fallen back on the tried and trusted Catholic doctrine that "daddy knows best". Brought up in the faith, he is convinced that the orthodoxy, however outdated, is the only way to think. 

It would be interesting, though, to know what he really thinks. He is clearly a thoughtful guy, with an underlying penchant for progressivism. Does he believe what he says, or is he just toeing the line?

The wacky world of BC politics

We sometimes think that Ontario provincial politics is pretty wacky, but it's certainly got nothing on the strange goings-on in British Columbia politics. Stay with me here.

The BC Liberals dominated BC politics from more than a decade, from 2001 to 2017, when there left-wing NDP under John Horgan and then David Eby came to power, and the NDP has domination ever since. The BC Conservative Party spent the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s in the political wilderness, with zero seats.

In 2022, former BC Liberal cabinet minister John Rustad was booted out of the party for questioning climate science. He crossed the floor and joined the Conservative Party in 2023, soon becoming party leader (he was the only Conservative with a seat in parliament for one thing). The Liberal Party basically disbanded and renamed itself BC United, although it was short-lived.

Rustad was initially lauded for growing the BC Conservatives from less than 2% of the vote to Official Opposition status (mind you, they still lost by a long chalk to David Eby's NDP). By 2025, though, Rustad's abrasive style made him very unpopular. Several Conservative MPs defected, and Rustad eventually resigned his leadership amid a party revolt.

In May 2026, Kerry-Lynne Findlay took over the leadership of the Conservatives, but she was even more unpopular and scandal-prone than Rustad. Conservative MP after Conservative MP resigned, many of them joing a new party, CentreBC, looking to distance themselves from Findlay's hard right stance, and Findlay herself ejected a few more. With the party in freefall, Findlay eventually resigned as leader on 20 September 2026.

With an election cynically called by Eby for 24 October to take advantage of the Conservative disarray, the BC Conservative Party is now desperately trying to reinvent itself. Many (but not all) of those who defected or were ejected are now moving back, rather shamefacedly, to the Conservative Party under new leader Lorne Doerksen.

And now, just for added confusion, the ex-leader of the BC Green Party, Andrew Weaver, will be running in the upcoming election ... for the conservative CentreBC party! Wacky doesn't even cover it!

AI mathematical proof not without its detractors

OpenAI has solved one of the thorniest mathematical problems still left unsolved. And not everyone is happy about it.

The Navier-Stokes Problem was one of the $1 million Millennium Prize Problems established by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. Without going into too much technical detail that would be way above my pay-grade anyway, the problem concerns a set of equations used to describe the flow of fluids. While the equations are already in regular use in everyday applications in physics and engineering, scientists don't really understand how or why they work, knowledge that would allow them to be used much more extensively in a wider range of applications. In order to do that, they need to understand scenarios where the equations break down or stop working, and that is the essence of the Navier-Stokes Problem.

Some scientists have welcomed the AI proof and see it as the start of a new golden age of mathematical advances. Others are a bit nonplussed that, while the proof is generally considered to be correct, the 166-page manucript is written in such opaque and obscure terms that no-one really actually understands it. It may take months or years more work to interpret it in a way that humans can understand and actually use. "The paper is not written for humans", as one mathematician put it. "It's a terribly written paper", says another. "Virtually unreadable", bemoans another.

But it gets murkier. Two mathematicians claim they were getting very close to a proof, and that the OpenAI proof uses their preparatory work. They accuse OpenAI of rushing out a muddled and poorly-argued paper in order to steal the accolades. 

Well, it wouldn't be AI if it weren't controversial, right?

The colourful history of Saint Pierre and Miquelon

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and French President Emmanual Macron had a meeting the other day. It took place, not in Paris, not in Montreal, not even in New York, where they will both be in just a few days time for a UN General Assembly meeting, but in Saint Pierre and Miquelon.

Saint Pierre and Miquelon (Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon in French) is a self-governing territory of France, home to some 6,000 French citizens. But it's nowhere near France; it's a tiny archipelago of islands, just 20km off the coast of the Burin Peninsula in southern Newfoundland (so, not even anywhere near Quebec). It's a weird anomaly: part of the European Union, but not part of the Schengen area or the European customs territory. It's currency is the euro, but it's also part of the Atlantic Canada Cooperation Commission.

How did such a thing arise? Well, the history of Saint Pierre Poilievre and Miquelon is as checkered and singular as it's current status. Originally inhabited by the indigenous Beothuk like the rest of Newfoundland, it was first claimed by Portuguese explorers in 1520, then by the French explorer Jacques Cartier in 1536. But it was not permanently settled (and named) by Europeans until 1670, at which time 12 French fishermen lived there. By the early 18th century French colonists had abandoned the islands completely, and they were ceded to Britain as part of the 1813 Treaty of Utrecht.

After the Seven year War and the 1763 Treaty of Paris, all of New France was ceded to Britain and Spain, but Saint Pierre and Miquelon, for some reason, went the other way and was ceded to France. In 1778, after France joined the American Revolutionary War against Britain,  French settlements on the islands were burned by the British, and the few French settlers there deported back to France. A British colony was established in 1793, but this was in turn burned by French forces in 1796. The islands were brought back under French control with the 1802 Treaty of Amiens, but retaken by Britain just a year later. They were returned yet again to France in 1815 under the Treaty of Paris, and gradually resettled by Breton, Norman and Basque settlers.

During American Prohibition in the 1920s, Saint Pierre and Miquelon became an important part of the smuggling network of alcohol from Canada to the United States, but it was plunged into economic depression once again after Prohibition ended in 1933. It was briefly under the control of the pro-Nazi Vichy regime, before being liberated by the Free French forces in 1941. The colony officially became a French Overseas Territory in 1946, after the Second World War, and finally acquired the status of "territorial collectivity" in 1985.

All this to-ing and fro-ing over a few tiny, bare, rocky islands, boasting just a thin layer of peat in places to soften the unforgiving landscape, and a harsh subpolar oceanic climate! The islands today are heavily subsidized by France, and the only real industry is fishing (and the filming of the CBC police procedural television series Saint Pierre!) It is hoped to develop its nascent tourist industry, and the islands' colourful history may yet become one of its greatest assets.

Canada looks to the east to replace the south

Canada's - or, more specifically, Mark Carney's - push for closer relations with the European Union makes perfect sense given what is happening with Canada-US trade relations.

While it's still not clear what "associate membership" of the EU might mean, or whether the 28-member bloc would even agree to what Ursula von der Leyen is proposing, Canada could certainly do a lot worse than to align itself closer with the EU (and some of the more civilized parts of Asia, Australasia, etc).

But wait, doesn't Canada already have a free trade agreement with the European Union? Well, kind of. The EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, thankfully abbreviated to CETA, was officially signed in October 2016, and entered into "provisional application" in September 2017. CETA eliminates duties on 99% of all tariff lines between the EU and Canada.

Which begs the question of what "provisional application" actually means. The full treaty required the official ratification of all 27 EU member states, which, as you might imagine, is a difficult thing to achieve. Currently, 17 of the 27 EU countries have ratified the agreement, with 10 countries still holding out nearly a decade later: Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland and Slovenia. Of these, France and Italy are probably the most important. Opposition by these hold-out countries largely focusses on: the dispute settlement system; its impact on national sovereignty, agricultural and commercial interests; food safety; consumer and worker rights; public services; and environmental and sustainable development.

Notwithstanding those reservations, the agreement is effectively in force now, and has been for the last decade. So, it's hard to know what else Canada wants from the EU (and vice versa). Ms. Von der Leyen has talked about an "Alliance for the Future", covering defence, energy, technology, critical minerals and the Arctic. This clearly goes much further than the current trade agreement. Carney has also talked about a "unique alliance" that extends beyond a conventional free trade deal.

But Mr. Carney has stressed that he is not looking to become a full member of the EU, with all the incumbent duties and costs (and some potential loss of national sovereignty and independence). The "associate member" status - which currently does not exist - presumably reflects this compromise.

Either way, it seems to be annoying the hell out of Donald Trump, so that's something. He calls it a "hostile act" done with "bad intentions" (nothing is "done" as yet), and is clearly rattled by the project of Canada taking its business and its loyalties elsewhere.

Is privatizing Canada's airports a good idea?

Mark Carney's latest announcement is about privatizing Canada's four biggest airports: Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary. Under this plan, the federal government would retain ownership of the underlying land and assets, but the day-to-day operation of the aiports would be opened up to private investors.

The theory is that airline customers would benefit from improved services and infrastructure, and the government would receive a large cash influx which can then be used to improve some of the smaller regional airports around the country, which are currently underfunded. It's being presented as a win-win scenario.

Seem too good to be true? Well, maybe. But studies do seem to show that, when airports are privatized, they do tend to be glowed up, the number of routes flying into them increases (including from low-cost carriers), and cancellations go down, soften drastically. These improvements are particularly noticeable where airports are acquired by private equity funds.

Is this a slam-dunk, then? Well, Canada's case is definitely not the same as parts of Europe and Asia, where distance are smaller and populations denser. But, when Australia privatized its airports, it too saw substantial improvements, and Australia is much more similar to Canada in its geography and demographics.

Some costs will definitely go up, though, for ticketing, parking and food. Private companies expect a profit after all, and investment funds in particular expect big profits (8-12%). Experience shows that, after privatization, most airports will put a price on baggage carts, for example, and pick-ups and drop-offs by private vehicles (and, by extension, ride-hailing services) will be charged sometimes quite onerous fees. 

The Canadian Labour Congress has pointed out that Australia's experience resulted in significantly higher fees imposed on travellers, as well as some substantial job losses as airports look to economize and rationalize their operations. Also, while the government may benefit from a one-time infusion of cash, it will be giving up a steady public income of around $525 million a year from rents and other fees.

The International Air Transport Association, which represents 370 of the world's airlines, has also registered its opposition to Mr. Carney's privatization plan, on the grounds that experience shows that the increased costs will be passed on to airlines, which will in turn Kass those costs on to travellers, so air fares will go up. Carney says that "the evidence shows travel costs go down over time", but that is not borne out by the recent experiences of Australia and Britain.

So, slam-dunk may be an exaggeration, but some advantages do exist. Whether they outweigh the drawbacks depends very much on your point of view. But you should definitely be prepared for higher air fares.

What Donald Trump knows about interest rates (not much)

Just one more indication of how little Donald Trump knows (or cares) about economics: after the US Federal Reserve finally had the cojones to raise interest rates, in direct opposition to Trump's frantic exhortations to drastically reduce interest rates, Trump tore the whole organization off a strip. His rationale? "Interest Rates in the United States should 1% or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World - BY FAR."

Setting aside the fact that he is living is a fantasy world, and that the US's credit rating is actually AA+ according to most rating agencies, compared to the AAA rating of countries like Canada, Australia and many European countries (see graphic below), that is not the point.

Credit ratings are not what drives interest rates, Mr. Trump.

The Fed - under new Trump appointee Kevin Warsh, who was widely expected not to have the gall to stand up to  - voted unanimously to increase interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75-4.00%, and warned that it would probably raise them again next month. HIS rationale? The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long."

Now that is a sensible rationale. And for that the US President blustered, "The board is very hostile. They're very political. They're doing the wrong thing. They're a bunch of politicians. They're raising rates to make Trump do as bad as they can possibly do."

Ah, so interest rates are actually all about Donald Trump! Now I get it.