As a direct result of Russia's invasion of non-aligned Ukraine, Sweden and Finland have now both formally and officially applied for membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Fearful of an unhinged Russia next door, the Nordic countries, which have long espoused a position of neutrality and military non-alignment, have decided that it is in their best interests to throw in their lot with NATO, rather than potentially risk facing an belligerent Russia alone.
This is the exact opposite of what Valdimir Putin was hoping to achieve with his invasion of Ukraine - well, he didn't think that through very hard, did he? - and he has long threatened "repercussions" if Sweden and Finland were to join NATO (although more recently he has softened his threats to a vow to take action only if NATO moves military infrastructure into their territories).
NATO in general is welcoming the two countries with open arms. Sweden in particular (and, to a lesser but still significant extent, Finland), is a military powerhouse, and will be a valuable addition to NATO forces. However, all 30 current NATO members must agree to the expansion - a process that could take months - and one, Turkey (or Türkiye, as we are apparently now supposed to call it), is threatening to withhold its vote. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogen maintains that both Sweden and Finland have given support to Kurdish military groups, and have imposed arms export embargos on Turkey over its military operations in Syria.
Turkey could therefore single-handedly derail the largest expansion of NATO in decades, even if this is not an objection on security grounds, but a case of political posturing and tit-for-tat pettiness. Some commentators believe that Erdogen is unlikely to actually veto the applications, but is merely playing politics and looking for concessions for domestic political advantage in the run-up to next year's Turkish elections.
As one Atlantic Council spokesman notes, the Finns in particular are very are negotiators, and both countries have probably already secured back-channel assurances of Turkey's vote before even starting the public process, and Turkish policy advisors are making it clear that the door to a "yes" vote is by no means closed, despite Mr. Erdogan's bluster.
That would certainly fit with Erdogan's character. But it would not surprise me if he would, if he felt it necessary, take it so far as to make the veto a reality. I wouldn't trust Erdogan to put European stability and world peace above his own political ambitions.
UPDATE
As expected, trilateral negotiations have resulted in Turkey retracting its objections to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, and the two Nordic countries are now on a firm path to full membership.
Sweden and Finland effectively had to agree that the Kurdish Workers Party (KKP) is a proscribed terrorist organization, and to "not provide support" to the Syria's Kurdish Democratic Union party (PYD) and People's Protection Units (YPG), which have both been active in fighting Islamic State in Syria but which Turkey maintains also militate against Turkey's borders.
Turkey says it "got what it wanted", and Sweden and Finland - both of which (but especially Sweden) took in tens of thousands of Kurdish refugees during the Syrian conflict - do not feel that they have given up much of value.
Of course, not everyone is entirely on board with that, including this ex-US Army Lieutenant Colonel, who believes that welcoming Finland amd Sweden into NATO is actually likely to increase the risk of future conflict, not reduce it, and even make Sweden and Finland more vulnerable. One can see some logic in his arguments, but I figure that NATO has put a deal of thought into the possible ramifications, and has clearly concluded that it is in everyone's best interests.
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