Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed doesn't look much like a peacemaker now

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was granted the Nobel Peace Prize just last year for his peaceful transition of power in perennially-embattled Ethiopian. He ended a long-standing state of emergency, established democratic reforms, negotiated peace with neighbouring Eritrea after years of conflict, welcomed back exiled dissidents and released political prisoners, apologized for past abuses, liberalized some of Ethiopia's draconian internal laws, and publicly railed against war. He seemed like a breath of fresh air after decades of militaristic repression.

But now, just a year later, Ahmed is presiding over a brutal and bloody war against Tigrayan rebels in the north of the country. He has summarily cancelled planned elections, and blamed the unrest and ethnic violence in the country firmly on his old political opponents - and for many years the dominant faction in Ethiopian politics - the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) with, it must be said, little or no evidence. Government forced claim to have succeeded in taking major cities in the region, but it seems likely to settle into a guerrilla warfare, which could drag on for years.

Now, some of the same people who nominated Ahmed for the Nobel Peace Prize are starting to second guess themselves. How come Ahmed has made such a complete volte face? How did a committed peacemaker become a warmonger in the space of less than two years?

To be fair, the ethnic troubles in the region have been brewing for years. But human rights observers had already noted that Ahmed was starting to fall into old repressive ways, locking up critics and curtailing the Internet, and blocking independent media reporting. The United Nations is warning of alarming rhetoric from the government, and points to the targeting of ethnic groups. Ahmed has rejected any compromise, vowing to continue the fight until the TPLF's leaders (whom he calls "criminals") are arrested and their arsenals destroyed, hardly the language of a peacemaker.

The Nobel Committee say they are concerned and troubled - I'll bet they are! - but how far will things have to go before they retract the prize? They are desperately trying to paper over the cracks, claiming that "it is now that Abiy Ahmed's efforts deserve recognition and need encouragement". But you can inagine a very different conversation going on behind closed doors. Did they jump the gun? Can a leopard change its spots (he is an ex-soldier, after all)? Were the signs there before the prize was awarded?