Thursday, August 20, 2020

Canada will probably follow Europe into a pandemic resurgence

Whether you want to call it a second wave or just a resurgence of the first, most of Europe is right back in the thick of the coronavirus pandemic.
Unlike the USA, which never really got things under control, Western Europe had a very bad time of it back in April and May before controlling things pretty effectively through some often draconian lockdown and quarantine rules. Reasonably confident about their situations most countries gradually opened up their economies and their societies and relaxed their restrictions. All in all, they did pretty much everything right, and were probably patting themselves on the back for a job well done a month ago.
But now, it's back. Most European countries are seeing a resurgence that takes them right back to the worst days of April in terms of daily new cases. Yesterday, Spain had 3,715 new cases and 127 deaths, France had 3,775 cases, German 1,707, Italy 642. Other countries that seemed to have beaten the virus, like South Korea, Australia, even New Zealand, have seen similar spikes Their health systems are generally coping (they've had plenty of practice), but any thoughts of strolling through the back streets of Paris or lounging on a Spanish beach this year are fading fast.
And where Europe goes, the chances are, so goes Canada. We have followed a similar trajectory, a month or two later, and it seems inconceivable that, as we continue to open things up, send kids back to school, etc, we will be able to avoid a very similar renewal of the bad old days of the spring.
Canada's new cases are currently in a holding pattern of 200-400 a day - not bad, but hardly negligible. Most of the new cases are among younger people under 40, so deaths are typically much lower than they were in the spring, around 5-10 per day, but again not negligible.
It's difficuly to know what we can do to avoid a European-style resurgence of the pandemic. Now that people have had a taste of freedom again, it is going to be very difficult to lock them down again, either here or in Europe, for all that politicians keep repeating that they won't hesitate to do so if necessary.

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