Wednesday, August 16, 2023

COVID is still killing people

Most people seem to be of the opinion that the pandemic is just, well, over. There's some vague talk about a new variant becoming more prevalent, and a new vaccine that will be available in the fall.

Well, it turns out COVID-19 is far from done. Canada (and most other countries, to be fair) has completely dropped the ball on testing and tracking the progression of the virus, other than some general waste-water testing. But, whether it is on people's radars or not, there are still nearly 30 COVID deaths a week in Canada -  more than I thought - and that number is probably substantially understated.

Interestingly, the number of "excess deaths" (the number of deaths in excess of the statistically expected number, taking into account things like population growth, ageing of the population, etc, and exclusing deaths from specific causes like drug overdoses, suicide, homicide, etc) in 2023 is 15-20% higher than it was at the start of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021 (2022 was abnormally high, even by pandemic standards). The number of excess deaths since the start of the pandemic stands at 90,300, compared to confirmed COVID deaths of 53,216.

Now some of these excess deaths could be indirectly attributable to tge virus, such as due to COVID-induced mental health problems or other illnesses, or due to delays in treatment or surgery due to pandemic restrictions (the UK and France, which keep good records, say that their excess deaths are almost all due to COVID). 

Another report also confirms that hospitalizations for COVID-19 have increased in 2023 compared to 2022 by about 19%. The average total length of stay in hospital also increased from 13 days in 2022 to 20 days in 2023, and the median age of patients increased from 63 to 75, although emergency department and intensive care visits for COVID have actually decreased.

Whatever the case, it seems that COVID is not going away any time soon, and a new wave is just around the corner (it has already begun in the UK). Sorry.

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