Does Donald Trump type out his own social media posts?

I was trying to figure out how Donald Trump found the time and the energy to make all those unhinged late night Truth Social posts. I mean he's have to spend most of the day consuming the latest conspiracy theories and disinformation streams, wouldn't he, and then stay up half the night as well? Well, it turns out that he has a "personal aide" or "executive assistant" called Natalie Harp who does most of the leg (and finger) work for him.

Little-known and low-profile, Harp is one of his most influential aides, and has been instrumental in the nearly 8,800 posts Trump has made since the start of his second term. She has access to Trump's Truth Social account, but she also has an alarming amount of control over what Trump writes about. She also controls much of what reaches his desk in the first place. Unusually, she appears to work directly for Trump and answers only to him, without any oversight by Trump's chief of staff, national security officials, or other communication aides, which has raised more than a few eyebrows.

How it works is that she arrives at Trump's residence each evening with a stack of printed-out draft posts, on subjects that she thinks Trump would want to publish under his name. She will have spent most of her day scouring the internet for suitable videos, images and text that would align with Trump's current grievances and worldview. 

Then, once Trump approves the selections, she logs into his account, usually in the late-night early-morning hours, and posts large batches of messages in quick succession, occasionally up to 160 in a single night's activity. This gives the impression that Trump is up at all hours, working(!) for the American people.

So, who is this eminence grise? Well, not so grise, it turns out. Ms. Harp is 34 years old, and sports long blonde hair and lots of make-up - a typical Trump pick, you could say. She used to be an anchor with One America News Network, a far-right political commentary TV network, and joined Trump's campaign in 2022. She became known as the "human printer" because part of her brief was to follow Trump around, even onto golf courses, to print out pertinent information for him, as Trump is of an age to prefer the printed word to screens.

Natalie Harp

Although she has somehow managed to remain quite private, she has attracted some scrutiny for some rather embarrassing adoring letters she has sent to Trump, which include comments like "You are all that matters to me", "I don't ever want to let you down", and "I want to bring you joy". Sycophantic, bordering on creepy. Others in Trump's staff found the "aggressiveness of her attention" discomfiting and unnerving, and possibly even a security concern.

Trump, however, is a big fan, and anyway is a sucker for the attentions of a young blonde woman. So, maybe don't feel too sorry for him tapping away on his phone into the wee hours - he's probably tucked up in bed with a can of Coke at the time his Truth Social posts are sent out.

The next Super El Niño is due this year

Batten down the hatches, we're in for a wild ride this year, weatherwise. We're expecting the strongest ever El Niño weather pattern in the second half of the year - a "Super El Niño", in the rather alarming argot of some climate scientists - which, combined with the effects of climate change, will probably generate some record-breaking weather in terms of temperatures and rainfall: stronger heat waves, worse droughts, more wildfires, stronger storms and more intense floods (although, as recompense, the Atlantic hurricane season may be less intense).

El Niño is a long-term weather event, usually lasting nine to twelve months, in which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal. This has the effect of altering and de-stabilizing the world's weather patterns for the duration, as it re-distributes heat across the whole planet. These events tend to occur every two to seven years, according to no fixed schedule. La Niña, on the either hand, is where the equatorial Pacific is cooler than average.

Currently, sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly, with further intensification expected in the months to follow. The volume and intensity of sub-surface warm water anomalies in the Pacific are as large as have ever been seen, scientists say, "more out of balance than at any time in observed history". 

So the chances are high that this year's El Niño will be the all-time strongest, even more exteme than the previous record-holder of 1877-8. That year's El Niño caused catastrophic famines across India, China, Brazil and elsewhere that killed more than 50 million people (3-4% of the world's population at the time), "arguably the worst envirnmental disaster to ever befall humanity".

While this year's El Niño may be even stronger, it's effects may not be quite as drastic. These days, we are forewarned by our technology (although we do then have to act on the warnings!) The Super El Niño of 1982-3 was a pivotal turning point in our understanding of the phenomenon, and led to crucial advances in ocean monitoring and real-time tracking. They helped predict the Super El Niños in 1997-8 and 2015-6.

Plus, we are better prepared socially, politically, technologically and economically to deal with the effects - at least in theory, and provided we can stop waging war on each other for long enough to deal with it.

Erskine-Smith's hubris may have derailed his whole career

I live in the Beaches-East York riding of Toronto. It's a reasonably well-to-do area, but reliably left-wing politically. That can translate into Liberal or NDP, depending on the particular candidates involved. The same can be said for the next door riding, Scarborough Southwest. However, it has been a bit like musical chairs in the area's politics just recently, as a whole complex series of candidate moves have taken place.

lt was all precipitated by the resignation of long-time Scarborough Southwest federal MP Bill Blair, who is to take up the position of High Commissioner to the UK (promotion? demotion? merely a change of scenery?) The provincial MPP for the same riding, Dolly Begum, had a yen to break into federal politics, which she clearly sees as the Big Leagues. So, she resigned her provincial seat and stood as a federal candidate in Scarborough Southwest, which she promptly won (part of the wave of recent Liberal by-election wins and floor-crossings that has given them a majority status).

Meanwhile, ambitious Beaches-East York MP Nathan Erskine-Smith was not satisfied with his position in the federal government (and was also smarting from being demoted out of the cabinet by new Liberal leader Mark Carney), and had set his sights on leadership of the provincial Liberal Party. (Why, you ask? No idea.) Now, it's not essential, but it's vastly preferable for him to have a seat in the Ontario Parliament for such a move, and his old riding of Beaches-East York already has a Liberal incumbent (Mary-Margaret McMahon). So, he figured, easy, pick up Dolly Begum's old provincial seat in Scarborough Southwest. Still with me?

Except it wasn't so easy. Erskine-Smith has lost the Liberal nomination for the provincial ridimg to local pizza mogul, Ahsanul Hafiz. Erskine-Smith - polished, experienced and oh-so-ambitious - just assumed he would be able to walk into the Scarborough seat. Yet now he may have put paid to his ambitions for the provincial Liberal leadership, and possibly any parliamentary seat at all, federal or provincial. 

He can probably keep his current federal seat in Beaches -East York, which he never explicitly resigned from, even though that would be the usual protocol. (He only committed to resigning ttat seat if he won the provincial nomination.) But that was in itself a point of contention for many Scarborough voters, and his yearning to move out of Beaches-East York - and just the man's naked ambition - may have damaged his brand there too.

So, Erskine-Smith has gone from a safe and secure position in the federal (now majority) governent and, up until quite recently, a cabinet position, to a much shakier position and possibly an end to his aspirations to lead the Ontario iberals (which are still in complete disarray anyway). Oh, how the mignty are fallen! And what a miscalculation for one who had such a reputation for political savvy! Hubris is the word that springs to mind.

Labour council losses laid at Keir Starmer's feet

Votes are still being tallied after Britain's local authority elections, but it seems clear that it has been a bit of a bloodbath for the ruling Labour Party.

Labour has gone from 65 councils to just 28. Most of them were converted into "no party majority", but several Labour councils went directly to the surging hard-right Reform UK party (and a handful to the Green Party). Reform ended up with a majority in just 14 councils, and the Greens with 4, both up from zero in the last election. The centrist Liberal Democrats also had a good showing, increasing its count from 1 to 15 councils. The Conservatives continued their down-and-out status, losing most of the few councils they used to control.

In Wales, once-dominant Labour lost 26 of its 35 seats, amd the.Conservatives lost 15.of their 22, with ascendant Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru becoming the largest part, although Reform UK did better there, taking 34 seats (upnfrom zero). In Scotland, the Scottish National party retained their dominance (although just short of an outright majority), despite a surge from Reform and the Greens, with the Conservatives seeing the biggest flops.

However, although Reform UK has clearly made significant gains in these local elections, it was maybe not as dramatic as expected by many, and there is some speculation that Reform's support may have already peaked. Reform leader Nigel Farage, of course, is claiming a "historic change in British politics" and asserting that Reform UK is on track for a general election victory, but this was probably not the landslide he had been hoping for.

Either way, overall, Labour was the big loser, and almost everyone is saying that the single biggest reason was national Labour Party leader Keir Starmer, even though he has nothing to do with regional municipal politics. Maybe it makes no logical sense, but this was in essence a referendum on Keir Starmer's leadership (and on the extent of Reform UK's surge).

The man is REALLY unpopular, and has been for some time, in spite of his broadly popular stance on the Iran war. There doesn't seem any way he can extricate himself, and many Labour MPs and voters are already looking ahead to a new leader, on the grounds that there is no way Labour can win another election with Starmer in place. (As of today, at least 90 of his own Labour MPs are calling for Starmer to stand down, and at least three cabinet ministers have tendered their resignations, so there doesn't seem to be any way back for him now.) 

As for who might replace Starmer, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is many people's favourite to replace Starmer, but Burnham is not an elected MP (a pre-requisite for the leadership position). Another popular choice is Health Secretary Wes Streeting, with one-time deputy prime minister Angela Rayner as a longer shot.

Israel uproots thousands of Palestinian olive trees

The state of Israel has never had a good image. From its very beginnings, it has been militaristic, combative and uncompromising. Since its scorched-earth policy in Gaza over the last couple of years (and, yes, let's say it, it's genocidal intentions), it has lost most of the little goodwill it may have had. You can be sympathetic to Jewish people for the way they were treated by the Nazis, but still hate the policies and the philosophy of the Israeli state, particularly its apartheid treatment of Palestinians.

More recently, since the press spotlight has been caught up in the Iran debacle, Israel has pressed what it sees as its advantage and made further illegal incursions into the West Bank. Attacks and intrusions by Israeli settlers have become increasingly violent, and whole Palestinian villages have been razed to the ground to make way for Israeli settlements (illegal under UN law).

Now, they have upped the ante, and hit new highs (lows) of callousness, as Israeli contractors uproot and destroy thousands of olive trees in the West Bank. The olive trees of Palestinians are their lifeline economically, but also a symbol of their national pride. Israel, of course, knows that, and pursued this action deliberately to further its aims of complete obliteration of Palestine.

The orders came directly from Bezalel Smodrich, one of the most hawkish members of the Israeli cabinet. He made his intentions quite clear: to "build the land of Israel and destroy of the idea of a Palestinian state". You can watch video of the devastation if you have a strong constitution.

Still on the fence about whether Israel is guilty of genocide?

Say "hello" to hello

I heard something on the radio yesterday that shocked me. Well, nothing new there, you might say. But this was a quirk of the English language that I was surprised not to have known about before.

Apparently, "hello" - along with variants like "hallo", "hullo", "hulloa", etc - has not always been the standard English language greeting, used by all and sundry. In fact, "hello"as a greeting is something of a late-comer, and was not popularized until Thomas Edison succeeded in making it the default greeting for phone conversations in the mid-to-late nineteenth century. By the 1870s, it featured in the "How To" section of the new phone books, and became officially sanctioned. (Telephone inventor Alexander Graham Bell preferred the rather nautical "ahoy", and apparently continued to use that throughout his life, even on the phone.)

The word "hello" did exist before this, of course, but it was more of an exclamation than a greeting, a word to attract attention or express surprise, closer to today's "Hey!" than anything else.

All of which made me want to go back to Jane Austen and Charles Dickens novels, to see how people greeted each other there. Sure enough, the usual greeting was most often "Good morning/afternoon/evening" or just "Good day", or, alternatively, straight into "How do you do?" 

Going back earlier, say in Shakespearean times, a greeting was more likely to be "hail" or a cheery "what ho!" or "well met!", although "good day" and "good morrow" were also common. No "hellos".

Ha! Who knew?

"Goodbye", on the either hand, has been in common use since at least the 16th century, before which "farewell", "Godspeed " or "adieu" were more common.

This is not the next pandemic

People can be forgiven for having panicky flashbacks to the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak six years ago (yes, six years!) But, rest assured, scientists tell us that this is a very diffferent situation.

The outbreak of hantavirus on a Dutch cruise ship in the South Atlantic is a localized concern, and being dealt with in a rational, sensible way. As a World Health Organization spokesperson puts it, "This is not COVID, this is not influenza, it spreads very, very differently". This particular variant of hantavirus, known as the Andes Virus for its origins in Argentina, can spread from human to human, unlike most hantaviruses that require exposure to the urine, feces or saliva of infected rats and other rodents. But it does not spread easily, and requires extended close-quarters or intimate exposure.

It is thought (but not proven) that the first victim may have caught the virus while birdwatching at a garbage dump outside of Ushuaia, Argentina (birders!), before boarding the ship. He passed it on to his wife and then others, both husband and wife ultimately dying, along with a German woman. Thus far, a total of eight passengers on the small cruise ship have been infected, five confirmed by testing, three suspected. However, the incubation period can be as long as four to six weeks, so it is quite possible that more cases will show, especially given that, until the illness was diagnosed, passengers were eating, socializing and interacting together as usual.

Hantaviruses like the Andes variant cause generic flu-like symptoms (fatigue, fever, muscle aches, occasionally diarrhea and vomiting), which can make it hard to diagnose. In some patients it can then progress into a severe, sometimes deadly, respiratory infection. The death rate may be as high as 30-40%, although it is probably much lower than that in practice. There is currently no specific treatment or vaccine available, but medical care (including ventilators) can help.

Unlike COVID-19 when it arrived, hantaviruses are relatively well-known and studied. They do not spread or mutate as quickly and easily as COVID. The hundred or so passengers on the cruise ship who may have been exposed to the virus are being monitored closely, and are being asked to stay in their cabins, which have been thoroughly disinfected. The remaining passengers will disembark at Tenerife, in the Spanish Canary Islands, where they will be isolated and medically assessed.

However, about 25 passengers have already disembarked at the South Atlantic island of Saint Helena, from where they have already dispersed to a dozen or so countries including Turkey, Singapore, New Zealand and the United States (you can fly to all those places from Saint Helena?) These passengers have been contacted, and their national health authorities will make the decisions about monitoring and quarantining.

So, worthy of close attention? Sure. Time to panic? Absolutely not.

Why would you not fill in your census form?

Some people in Canada are refusing to fill out their census forms, risking fines up to $1,000.

Ridiculous people! What kind of a "protest" is that? More money than sense?