Alberta votes in its ten-question referendum in just a couple of days time. The conventional wisdom is that Albertans will vote overwhelmingly to stay in Canada, although that will only happen if the remain faction is not so complaisant that it forgets to vote.
Either way, commentators are already thinking about what will happen AFTER the vote. Premier Danielle Smith seems to think that everyone should just sigh "Ah, well" and move on, and has vowed never to revisit the issue on her watch. But that seems disingenuous. Separatist sentiment will continue to simmer regardless - it's where the far right in the province is currently hanging their Stetson hat, after previous forays into anti-vaccination policies, the "Freedom Convoy", parental rights and anti-trans sentiment. The referendum has, to some extent at least, legitimized the Alberta separatist movement, whatever its eventual outcome. And, much like with Brexit, the remain camp seem much less energized, urgent and motivated than the leavers, despite the existential nature of the issue, so anything could happen.
As in Quebec, Alberta separatism will not just dissipate into the ether after the referendum, but will continue to fester, at least until Donald Trump leaves power (if that ever happens) when it may see a resurgence. This is especially true if the independence vote achieves the possible-but-unlikely threshold of, say, 40%, which it could do with the addition of voters who don't really want to separate but who want to "send a message to Ottawa", or just a register a protest in some way.
Meanwhile, the Alberta populace will remain deeply divided and irreconcilable. One interesting study looked at the attitudes of separatists and federalists towards each other. It found that, while most separatists did not have strong feelings either way about their federalist opponents, most federalists were quite bitterly resentful of the secessionists who have put their province at risk in this way.
Whatever the outcome of the vote, Alberta may have soured and scared off many potential investors, and that's largely on Premier Smith for enabling the separatist vote as she has, regardless of her own opinions on the matter (if indeed you believe what she says). For some time now, she has been walking a very narrow tightrope between left and right (or, rather, between right and far right).
The next provincial election is coming up in almost exactly a year's time. Most opinion polls put Ms. Smith and her United Conservative Party in a statistical dead heat with the opposition NDP, and her own personal populatity has dropped to new lows. Some think she might call an early snap election (colloquially known as "pulling an Eby") before her chances sour still further, although that could easily backfire (à la Eby). If the remain vote, which she professes to support, prevails, then the influential separatist faction within her own party would of course be baying for her removal (many already are).
It's tempting just to flip off would-be separatists, and tell them to grow up and get real. Or just move to Montana already (I can't get Frank Zappa's Montana out of my mind: "Movin' to Montana soon, gonna be a dental floss tycoon".)
Either way, Ms. Smith has made her bed and now must lie in it. Don't expect her to get much shut-eye, though.
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