Secession from Canada would be really hard

The provinces of Alberta and Quebec have been bloviating  for some time now (decades, in Quebec's case) about seceding from Canada. It's not clear just how popular a move that would be in either province, but a vocal minority are agitating strongly for it. Alberta is getting close to holding a referendum on the matter, and Quebec will hold yet another referendum if the Parti Québécois assumes power in the next provincial election later this year, as it is expected to do, although exactly when that might happens is now far from clear. 

Most economists think that either province seceding would be an economic disaster, both for the province and for the country. A large majority of Canadians think that, however much of a thorn in the side the provinces currently are, losing either or both would be bad for Canada. But, of course, such logical arguments do not hold much weight with those looking to strike out on their own; this is not a logical argument.

Thing is, though, separation from Canada would be very difficult for either province, even if the populations decided they did want it, as Stéphane Dion (diplomat, academic, former polician, and the ultimate legal and policy wonk) describes in an extensive Globe and Mail article. For context, a couple of other articles in the same paper, one on Alberta and one on Quebec, give a flavour of the kinds of grievances these provinces feel they are suffering.

Unlike most democratic countries, including the United States, the Canadian Constitution DOES allow for a province to secede, but it does not make it easy. For one thing, it does not allow for unilateral secession: it can only happen in a negotiated process, as established by cases in the Supreme Court and by the Clarity Act of 2000. It requires an amendment to the Constitution, which therefore requires the buy-in of all the other provinces. 

Even before that negotiation can happen, the provinces in question must demonstrate "clearly" that a "clear majority" and a "strong majority" (which may mean more than 50%) of its residents want to separate and no longer be part of the country of Canada. There are various stipulations as to what a "clear" referendum question should be, so that there can be no fudging or confusion.

Mr. Dion goes into great detail on what any inter-provincial negotiations would need to look like, detail that would likely make the most ardent separatist blanch and wilt.

The Parti Québécois, in its typical outraged and antagonistic way, has vowed that it will ignore the Clarity Act and just declare its independence anyway if a referendum were to go its way. No other country would accept the legitimacy of such a unilateral secession, and Canada would most definitely not. 

Not only would such a declaration be unlawful, it would be totally impractical. Without the support of the federal government and the global community, there is no way any province could make separation work in practical terms. For example, imagine the process of transferring thousands of federal public servants, of revising a vast array of federal laws and regulations, of the disposition of federal Crown property, assets and liabilities, etc, etc, without the willing (or even grudging) support of the federal government. This administrative nightmare alone should be enough to give any province pause before embarking such a path.

So, lawful secession is possible in Canada. It's just really hard.