Ontario anti-tariff ad is not fake, but was still ill-advised

Donald Trump has had another temper tantrum and called an abrupt halt to the ongoing trade negotiations between Canada the US.

The reason this time? A prime-time advertisement on American television paid for by the province of Ontario, using parts of a 1987 national address by then President Reagan, critical o9f tariffs and in favour of free trade. Trump freaked out when he saw the ad, calling it "FAKE" and "egregious", later adding that Reagan "LOVED TARIFFS FOR OUR COUNTRY AND ITS NATIONAL SECURITY".

Well, I'm not sure Trump is certain about the meaning of egregious, but the video is certainly not fake, and Reagan certainly did not love tariffs, only using them very sparingly in cases of absolute necessity (e.g. against Japan, which was the occasion for the address to the nation sampled in the Ontario ad). 

"Sometimes, for a short while, it works, but only for a short time", Reagan is quoted as saying in his 1987 speech. "Over the long run, such trade barriers hurt every American, worker and consumer." He continues, "High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries, and the triggering of fierce trade wars. Then the worst happens: markets shrink and collapse, businesses and industries shut down, and millions of people lose their jobs." Etc, etc. Ford's intention was to have President Reagan, still a revered icon for most American conservatives, show how Trump's policies will not work for them in the long run.

The Reagan video clips are quite real. His words are not altered in any way. The only thing that has been changed from the original address is the order in which Reagan's various statements occurred. I'm not sure why this was done - presumably the producers of the advertisement felt the rearranged clips had more dramatic effect - or why the BBC felt it important to explain this in great detail in their investigation and analysis of the ad.

And, of course, some of the address has also been cut out completely, in order to make a 5-minute speech fit a 1-minute ad. But none of the deleted parts negate in any way the import and sense of Reagan's comments. In fact, as the BBC analysis shows, most of what was left out would have made the anti-tariff point even more strongly. So, the claims of the Ronald Reagan Foundation that the ad is "misleading", in some unexplained way, seems incorrect too.

All that being said, I still wish that the ad had not been broadcast, and that Ontario Premier Doud Ford would stop sticking his oar into international politics. He is just making the job of the real trade negotiators harder than it need be. Even if the intention was laudable, Ford's timing was abysmal, the ads (and Trump's predictable reaction) aired just as real progress wasnbeing made on sectoral tariffs like steel, aluminium, lumber, autos. That hard-earned progress is now gone, and may never be recovered.

Ford is trying to live upto the "Captain Canada" persona some admirers have labelled him with, but, in reality, he is just a provincial premier with very limited power and influence. The last time he tried to unilaterally face off with Trump, he ended up with egg on his face as Trump promptly doubled Canadian tariffs, and Ford had to ignominiously walk back his own feeble attempt. He's not good at this stuff, and he really needs to stay in his own lane. Mr. Sensitivity he is not.

UPDATE

Ford has grudgingly agreed to take the ads down, presumably after Mark Carney and his negotiating team had some strong words with him.

However, thanks to the "Steisand Effect" (in which trying to shut something down results in many more people seeing it), the ad has been viewed over a billion times, making it, in Doug Ford's estimation, "the most successful ad in the history of North America, not just here". He added, " We generated a conversation that just wasn't happening in the US", which may or may not be true. And how can it be the most successful ad if it has achieved the exact opposite of what it intended (increased tariffs, not zero tariffs)?

UPDATE UPDATE

Because Ford didn't take the ads down quickly enough (or so Trump says), Trump has not only stopped all trade negotiations with Canada, but has slapped an extra 10% tarriff on everything exported to Canada "because of their serious misrepresentation of the facts, and hostile act". This comes long after Trump's initial reaction that he could have made the ad himself were he Ontario, until,, that is, he realized he could use it to his advantage.

So, any pretence of American tariffs being imposed for economic or national security reasons has now gone completely. Trump is now openly imposing US tariffs for random personal reasons. But, in the absence of a court ruling specifically disallowing them, the tariffs stand, illegal or not.

Once again, Trump called the Ontario ad "fraudulent", "crooked" and "possibly AI", and reiterated his belief that "Ronald Reagan LOVED tariffs". None of that is true, as I'm sure Trump himself really knows. But what IS true is that Doug "Bull in a China Shop" Ford should keep his butt out of sensitive international negotiations. He is not up to the task. *Sigh*

Of course, there are those who believe that Ford's antagonistic ad was not actually to blame for Trump's latest temper tantrum, but that Trump just used it as an excuse, a pretext, for an increased tariff threat against Canada, which he admits he finds hard to deal with. If it wasn't the ad, then, it would have been something else. Maybe this is just Trump's bizarre idea of "the art of the deal" - calling off negotiations from time to time, just to keep negotating partners off-balance. Well, that may or may not be true, but the point stands: Ford should not be handing Trump pretexts.