Monday, June 16, 2025

Ontario as a province is not faring well

Here's a slightly shocking article about the province of Ontario from TheHub.ca. Assuming that the source data is real, Ontario, Canada's largest and richest province, is also one of the country's greatest underperformers on a whole host of indicators.

(TheHub.ca has a centre-right political bias, but is considered High in terms of factual reporting, according to Media Bias/Fact Check.)

I have seen my province taking the wrong course for some years now under the populist leadership of a grinning Doug Ford. But, although Ford and his Conservatives also get a failing grade, this article suggests that the rot set in much earlier, including under the Liberal governments of Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne.

With its low-carbon power grid, world-class universities, and a diverse and well-educated population, Ontario should be a star among Canadian provinces. But according to this article, it is actually stagnant, slow-moving and structurally stuck.

Among the exhibits of evidence, the article lists:

  • In the year 2000, Ontario's real GDP per capita was 5% higher than the rest of Canada; today it is 3% lower. Over that.same period, Ontario's real GDP per capita grew at 0.55% per year, while the rest of Canada grew at 0.91%.
  • Real median incomes for young people (25-34) have grown about 9% since 2000, compared to 20% for Canada as a whole, and over 30% in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. In Toronto, the real median incomes of young people actually fell by 4.5%.
  • Ontario's current unemployment rate is currently 7.9%, compared to 7.0% nationally. In Toronto, it is almost 9%, and youth unemployment a staggering 16.3%, up from 10.9% just three years ago. This increase is also higher than in Canada as a whole, and higher than any other single province.

The article goes on to elaborate on the author's explanations for these alarming statistics, which strays into the domain of politics and opinions, rather than straight economics, so I will spare you that. But the bare stats themselves are certainly food for thought (although, annoyingly, the stats and graphs lack credits and sources).

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