Thursday, September 26, 2024

Only Doug Ford would see a 401 tunnel as a solution

Doug Ford must have been thinking that it's been way too long since he came up with something contentious, silly and terminally impractical. He did try recently, with his scheme to throw lots of money at corner shop keepers to stock Ford's favourite product, alcohol, but that was not one of his best. Then, there was his bright idea to ban the installation of new bikes lanes, save in exceptional circumstances. This latest one, though, is a doozy.

Yesterday, Ford announced that he wants to build a multi-lane tunnel the entire length of Highway 401's busiest stretch, from Mississauga/Brampton to Scarborough/Markham. At over 50 km in length, this would make it the longest tunnel in the world (over twice as long as the current record-holder in Norway), and almost certainly the most expensive. Ford specifically stipulated that it should be toll-free - he doesn't like to put any restrictions on our God-given right to drive.

In fact, Ford is not really sure how much it would cost, even approximately. Boston's "Big Dig", the only North American project even vaguely comparable, cost well over $20 billion (in today's dollars, adjusted for inflation), nearly 3 times the original estimate, and it took 25 years (plus nearly 10 years of planning) and was plagued with overruns, leaks and collapses. "That's not going to happen here. We're experts at tunnelling", Ford assured us. This from the man overseeing the (ongoing, and disastrous) Eglinton Crosstown Light Rail project...

So, Ford wants to tie up Toronto's construction and maintenance resources for more than a generation - during most of which time he himself will be comfortably retired, likely even dead - and saddle Ontario's tax-payers with an unprecedented cost that the government (and the tax-payers) clearly can't afford. Regardless, in his usual gung-ho cowabunga style, Ford blustered, "I'll tell you one thing, we're getting this tunnel built" (regardless of feasibility?).

Of course, right now we're only at the feasility study stage (or even the dream stage, you might say), and nobody, possibly excepting Ford, actually expects this thing to take off. Or at least, so they hope. 

If Ford had bothered to ask a traffic expert or two before opening his mouth, he would know that decades of traffic research has shown that widening highways or adding new lanes only encourages more driving and new low-density suburban housing, resulting in just as much congestion within a year or less - it may sound counter-intuitive, but it's called the "induced travel effect" and it's a well-known thing - and at great cost to the public purse. The Katy Freeway near Houston is a good example - it has been expanded and expanded to 26 lanes in some places, and is still congested.

The 401 is one of the world's busiest highways. It is 18 lanes wide at its widest, and it still gets gridlocked regularly. Everyone would admit there is a problem, and some serious solutions have been put forward, e.g. invest some substantial money in attractive public transit, impose road tolls, buy back the nearby 407 roll road, etc. No-one would suggest building a tunnel. No-one but Doug Ford, that is.

While it makes almost no sense in any practical way, the point of Ford's announcement (and the one about stopping new bike lanes) is not to make meaningful and sensible changes to the province's infrastructure - it is all about posturing for a possible early election, and galvanizing his base electorate: suburban drivers. Doug Ford doesn't care about the province's roads and finances; he just wants to be elected again.

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