Thursday, January 18, 2024

Many Democrats would prefer to see another Biden-Trump match-up

It's interesting to note that hypothetical polls of head-to-head match-ups between Joe Biden and the three Republican nominee candidates shown that both Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis have a better chance of beating Biden in a national election than Donald Trump does

I know we shouldn't put too much faith in polls, which have proved remarkably unreliable in recent years. But a CBS/YouGov survey puts Haley at a 53%-45% advantage over Biden, DeSantis at a 51%-48% advantage, and Trump at just 50%-48%. To be sure, all the polls show Biden as losing were an election to be called tomorrow, but at least he stands slightly more chance against Trump than against either of Trump's main rivals.

It's a bit of a moot point given that Trump is much more likely to win the Republican nomination. But, as President Biden said after Trump's easy win in the Iowa, "Here's the thing: this election was always going to be you and me versus extreme MAGA Republicans", and he has a point. Neither Haley nor DeSantis differ strongly from Trump in policy terms, and neither of them really seem willing to oppose him in any substantive way, other than by providing alternative personalities (although even those don't differ THAT much - all are strident, in-your-face, hard right demagogues, even if not quite as off-the-wall as Trump).

The Biden campaign seems to see a Biden-Trump re-match as an easier sell to his own supporters and to what moderate conservatives still remain in America, and as a Devil-you-know kind of situation. He would still be in verybtough against Trump, despite Trump's 2 impeachments and 91 criminal charges. But he can at least portray himself as the candidate looking to save America from a complete breakdown in democracy and law and order, which is a good, simplistic, good-and-evil type image that might just work in his favour. 

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