You read from time to time that the mass uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and the general electrification of the entire economy (in order to phase out the use of carbon-intensive oil and gas) will "break the grid", and that the electricity industry is not going to be able to gear up enough to accommodate the increased demand for clean power. Actually, you read that quite a lot in certain right-wing circles. But how true is it?
The CBC addressed this very question just recently. The upshot seems to be: not very true or at least, somewhat exaggerated. (Interestingly, if you search for "EVs will break the grid", 90% of the results are actually about why EVs won't break the grid - or is that just my personal Google algorithm? - either way, there are many articles to choose from on this subject.)
The Canadian government has set a very ambitious target of net-zero by 2035 in its recently released Clean Electricity Regulations. But it is quite aware that this will require a whole lot more green electricity than we are currently capable of producing, and it estimates that the replacement of ageing facilities, expanded generating and grid capacity, and battery storage measures will probably cost in the region of $400 billion. Which is a lot of money.
But the International Energy Agency and the Canadian Climate Institute still think that this is achievable (even if Danielle Smith does not, which is a whole other problem). The thing is, we are not going from very few EVs and heat pumps to 100% EVs and heat pumps overnight. The change to EVs and heat pumps will be a gradual process, which has only just begun, and the change to more efficient and more sustainable electricity production will also be a gradual process, which arguably has barely started, at least here in Canada.
Even an ambitious-sounding goal of doubling electricity production in 25 years only requires an increase of 3% a year, so long as it's done consistently year in and year out. Now, this is still substantially faster than the growth in recent years, but it is eminently doable. That said, there is no room for delay (looking at you Danielle Smith, Rob Ford, etc), and we need to be on this now (yesterday).
There are other cosiderations. For example, some provinces like Quebec and Newfoundland are very reliant on inefficient electric baseboard heaters, and a switch to much more efficient heat pumps would actually save electricity. (The increase in electricity generation would have to be accompanied by improvement in efficiency, energy conservation, insulation, etc, anyway.)
Yes, it may well lead to higher electricity prices, but a switch from expensive natural gas would lead to large savings there (we will be using fewer fossil fuels and so spending less on them). The Canadian Climate Institute suggests that energy costs for Canadians will actually decline by 12% by 2050 due to lower, less volatile and better managed pricing of renewable resources.
EV alone charging is expected to represent some 22% of the current total electricity usage by 2050 (note: current usage). But electricity systems planners do not seem to see this as a source of worry, but as a business opportunity. EV charging can be flexible, and can be timed outside of peak hours. And the amount of electricity needed to charge all those EVs may not be as much as many people think: according to Scientific American, charging the 1 million EVs currently in California accounts for just 1% of the grid's total load during peak hours, and the 5 million EVs expected by 2030 will use just 5% of peak load.
Plus, increasingly, new EV models are going to feature bidirectional charging and vehicle-to-building (V2B) or vehicle-to-grid (V2G) power (this is already starting). This will potentially act as a flexible power storage facility, which utilities see as a "game-changing resource". Thus, electricity users will become "prosumers", both producing, storing and consuming power. In effect, EVs can help improve grid stability, rather than threaten it.
Dynamic pricing and peak load management will be administered by AIs, and the simple expedient of delayed charging using an app can eliminate peaks in electricity demand, according to a recent MIT study. All of this is already within our power (sic).
Currently, Canada is way behind many other countries (and even some US states) on this stuff, but at least the Liberals are, belatedly, making a start. God forbid we end up with a Conservative government any time soon, though, or all bets will be off.
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