Monday, October 17, 2022

Drones become the weapon of choice in Russia-Ukraine conflict

I have often wondered why drones are not used more extensively in warfare. Whenever I see someone playing with a recreational drone on the beach, I shudder slightly, and I find even the whine of them slightly sinister. I think that is partly because I am imagining the horrors they could perpetrate in a conflict situation. 

Well, the current Russia-Ukraine conflict has changed all that, and drones are being used extensively by both sides, particularly by Russia. Russia is being beaten handily by Ukraine in most aspects of the war, so they are resorting more and more to drone warfare. It recently sent wave after wave of drone attacks to Kyiv and various other Ukrainian cities far from the front lines of the war, for maximum civilian deaths and disruption.

Most of the Russian drones are Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones (which the Russians also call Geranium-2, because it sounds nicer). They look like tiny planes with a wingspan of about 2.5m, and they are designed to loiter over a target until instructed to attack. Their explosive payload detonates on impact, destroying the drone in the process. They are small and fly relatively low and fast, making them hard to pick uo on radar. They are also relatively cheap at about $20,000 each. 

Russia also has some smaller, more basic, home-grown Orlan-10 drones, which carry a camera and small bombs. It is unknown just how many of each remain in their arsenal.

Ukraine too has been using drones, to limited effect, principally the Turkish-made Bayraktar BT2. These are the size of small planes, have an on-board camera and can be armed with laser-guided missiles. However, they are expensive (about $2 million each!), and Ukraine probably only had 50 or so at the start of the war, so they need to be used sparingly. Ukraine also has much less ammunition at its disposal than Russia. Because these drones are large and relatively slow-moving, Russia has been very effectively shooting them down, especially with its Stupor rifles, which shoot electromagnetic pulses, and online scrambling systems like Aeroscope.

Both sides are also making use of small, cheap, commercial drones, like the DJI Mavik, which has a very limited range of about 30km, but which can be useful for reconnaissance purposes, although they can also be fitted with small bombs. They have the advantage of being pretty cheap, at around $1,700.

So, there is a whole science fiction-style drone war going on out there, although I am still a little surprised that even more of the war is not being conducted using them. For instance, why does Ukraine have less than 50 big, slow drones, that cost $2 million each, and that get shot down relatively easily anyway? Is that not something the West could easily rectify?

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