Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Let's talk about the economics of that wall

Whatever you may think about Donald Trump's pet construction project, one thing that can't be said about it is that it makes economic sense (well, that's exactly what Trump is saying, but setting that aside...) A detailed new study by researchers at Dartmouth College and Stanford University makes this abundantly clear.
The report suggests that the $5.7 billion price tag Mr. Trump keeps repeating is way too low to achieve what he requires; the real cost could be anywhere from $8 billion to $285 billion for the whole Mexico-US border.
Even if it were to be built, though, its touted economic claims are grossly exaggerated. A wall is likely to deter just 1% of illegal Mexican migrants, who would just resort to sea journeys instead. And, for every migrant the wall does keep out, the US stands to lose about $30,000 a year. The incomes of low-skilled US workers might see an increase of maybe $1 a year as a result, although the incomes of college-educated workers could see a fall of up to $8.
All in all, the report concludes that the overall impact of a border wall would be "largely negative" with a few "paltry" benefits for low-skilled workers.
Arguably, Trump was elected thanks to his "build-a-wall" rhetoric, but now most Americans don't want it - only 40% think it's a good idea according to the latest Pew Research Center poll. Don't expect any of this to sway Trump's course, though. Fake news, you know.

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