The Canadian federal election is 53 days away as I type, a seemingly interminable period of attack ads, eye-scratching and back-stabbing, during which a lot could happen and all manner of swings and sea changes could occur.
As things stand, the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP are locked in a neck-and-neck-and-neck race. A sizeable majority therefore want to see the back of Stephen Harper and his divisive and destructive policies. But, just as occurred in the last couple of elections, the split of the ABC (Anything But Conservative) vote could quite easily result in a Conservative victory in our first-past-the-post electoral system.
The picture is further complicated by the recent trend towards the political centre, as all the parties fall over themselves not to appear too radical or to risk alienating or excluding anyone at all, and to be all things to all people. Both the Liberals and the NDP have adopted what they see as some of the more successful ploys from the Conservatives' political arsenal, with the Liberals touting a Harperesque micro-targeted tax break (for teachers who pay for their own school supplies -it doesn't get much more targeted than that!), and the NDP uncharacteristically promising a balanced budget come what may. It is sometimes hard to distinguish between the parties, and on some issues, like stimulus spending and balanced budgets, the Liberals are clearly to the left of the traditionally left-wing New Democrats. Of course, what the parties promise may not always sync with what they will (and even what they intend to) achieve once in power.
A Liberal-NDP merger seems to be out of the question, even if Thomas Mulcair did seem open to the idea at one point. However, nil desperandum, all is not lost. There is still the power of strategic voting! It's not something I relish having to promote, but sometimes needs must. And, finally, we have a tool to help us with that.
VoteTogether.ca is a website that analyses all the Canadian federal ridings, based on prior election results and the best anecdotal knowledge of the current situation, and identifies those ridings where strategic voting is likely to be beneficial in keeping the Tories from exploiting a split non-Tory vote.
In their analysis, there are some 72 Conservative swing ridings across the country where a concerted strategic voting effort could relatively easily exclude a Tory MP, including a large number in and around Toronto and the GTA region, and another large clutch in British Columbia. The other 266 seats are in their opinion pretty much cut and dried in one direction or another, and effort there is unlikely to yield concrete changes.
Ideally, the leaders of the Liberal and NDP parties would also recognize this situation and limit their local campaigns in ridings where they are unlikely to win but may spoil the chances of the other non-Tory party. In some cases, in the last election, a swing of just a few percentage points would have made the difference, and just seven seats would have made the difference between a Tory majority and a minority government. So much pain could have been spared by just a small exercise in cooperation.
Yes, there are differences between the Liberals and the NDP, and between their leaders and their policies. But these differences are not as great as between the Conservatives and the rest, and I believe that this is the time to put minor differences behind us and focus on the major differences. Vote together, and get Canada off its current self-destructive track!
UPDATE
There is also another online resource for strategic voting at StrategicVoting.ca. This one identified 63 ridings where strategic voting could potentially avoid a Conservative win, and indicates the most likely of the "progressive" candidates to win in each, as well as 67 more where the projected combined progressive vote is greater than that of the Conservatives (so that a concerted strategic voting effort could make a difference).
No comments:
Post a Comment