Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Madagascar should not be involving itself with Russia

Some people, and some countries, just never learn. Various countries in Africa - Mali Niger, Burkina Faso - have succumbed to blandishments from Russia and agreed to one-sided partnerships in which Russia supplies weapons, training and military expertise to those countries (all military dictatorships) to aid them in their fight, mainly against Islamic insurgents.

In general, it hasn't gone well, in terms of successes in quelling sectarian unrest. (Frankly, I'm surprised that Russia has weapons or military personnel to spare at the moment even if these are mainly private militias.)

Now, another recently-minted military diactorship, Madagascar is looking to follow them down the road of "deepening ties" with Moscow. Russia has already started supplying weapons and instructors through its paramilitary operation, Africa Corps. Again, it surprise me that Madagascar, an economic basket case if ever there was one, has any money to spare for such a venture, although it does seem that countries can always find money for the military, however dire their circumstances. Unlike some of the other Sahel countries where Russia has inserted itself, Madagascar doesn't even have an Islamist problem; its ruling junta just wants to better control the country's beleaguered and exasperated populace.

Various onlookers, including the US's Africa Command are warning Madagascar not to go down the road towards increased Russian involvement, partly out of Cold War-style competition with Russia, but partly for the very real prospect that Russia's motives are never pure. It is almost certain that Russia's real motives are more along the lines of control of natural resources, and insinuation into, and infringement of, national sovereignty. 

China does it through trade and infrastructure projects; Russia prefers the military and security forces route. But you always know that both of them have ulterior motives. You know it will end with tears. Pick your poison.

No comments: