Is the Trump administration colluding in insider trading?

Throughout Donald Trump's second term, there have been many market-moving statements and announcement, more than in any other presidential term in living memory. Whether it be to do with the war in Iran, incursions into Venezuela, or just the never-ending series of announcements about tariffs early in his tenure, few (if any) presidents have made so many, and so consequential, public announcements that have had significant effects on the stock markets and resource prices. 

Often, these were just throwaway, late-night posts on Truth Social or other social media, but many of them were enough to send the already-jittery markets into a tailspin or a mysterious upsurge. Coincidence? I think not!

There is an increasing body of evidence that suggests that there was a suspicious surge in trading activity before many of these announcements, which has some commentators posing allegations of insider trading. There are many documented examples of traders betting millions of dollars on the exchanges just hours, or even minutes, before major policy announcements. The BBC details many such examples, and The Guardian has calculated that there may have been a least a billion dollars in suspiciously "perfectly-timed" trades, as well as online betting on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, during the Iran war alone. Notably, Donald Trump's own net worth has nearly doubled during his second term, which is only, lest we forget, just over a year old. Several members of Trump's immediate family have been doing very nicely thank you too.

Insider trading - stock trading based on non-public information about a company or sector - is highly illegal in America, as elsewhere. Some US senators have called for a probe into possibly insider trading during the height of the tariff nonsense. 

It is, however, notoriously difficult to prove such allegations, and the laws are very difficult to enforce. There is a strong chance that no-one will ever be prosecuted. Including, of course, Trump himself, and his family and close advisors.

UPDATE

Despite being in Trump's pocket, the Department of Justice (DoJ) has begun an official investigation into a series of suspiciously-timed trades in the oil market.just ahead of major announcements by President Trump.

My guess is that this is a show trial that will conveniently exonerate all concerned. But you never know, it might be real. Maybe this is the DoJ starting to extricate itself from under the Trumpian digit, and trying to distance itself from a president it sees as in the process of going down. Rats from a sinking ship?