Sunday, July 30, 2023

Estimates of COVID cases in the UK - somehow

Apparently, the UK is still able, somehow, to monitor, or at least estimate, COVID cases.

According to reports based on data from the Zoe Health Study, there is quite a spike going on. Estimated case numbers have jumped from 696,656 on July 4th to 785,980 on July 27th. It is thought that the jump is largely due to outdated vaccinations and poor weather in July leading people to spend more time together indoors in poorly ventilated spaces!

Well, maybe. But where are they getting these estimates from? No-one is testing any more, and no-one is reporting their infections. 

The Zoe Health Study seems to be a kind of community science outfit, studying, among other things, the Big Poo Review and the Big IF Study (Intermittent Fasting), as well as their ongoing COVID monitoring efforts. 

Apparently, their COVID estimates are based on "PCR and LFT test data as of 2 days ago". What test data? No-one is testing! I'm not sure I would have a whole lot of confidence in these projections.

UPDATE

For the record, EG.5 (and EG.5.1) is fast becoming the top new COVID variants in the UK and, increasingly, around the world. Also know as Eris, after the Greek goddess of strike and chaos, EG.5 and its offshoots are descendents of Omicron, as was the previous front-runner, Arcturus or XBB.1.16, which is still the No. 1 variant in the UK.

It is similar to other Omicron variants in that it is not that virulent and dangerous, but it is highly transmissible. Typical symptoms include runny nose, headache, fatigue, sneezing and sore throat (i.e. basically the same as the common cold).

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