Is it time we admitted sanctions against Russia are not working?

There, someone said it out loud (thank you, Simon Jenkins of The Guardian). 

The West's sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine are really not having the game-changing effect they were supposed to have. But they have become sacrosanct and an article of faith in Western political circles, to the extent that any criticism of sanctions are seen as tantamount to support for Putin and a callously abandonment of Ukraine.

But it seems clear that, although supply of Western armaments IS having some effect, sanctions are really not. Inflation, and particularly world energy prices, are soaring; shortages of gas, grain and fertilizer are hitting developed amd undeveloped countries alike, hard; but Putin seems signally unaffected by sanctions against his country. Granted, the Russian people ARE probably being affected, to an extent that is difficult to quantify, but Putin is the guy calling the shots in Russia, and he has not blinked once.

The fact is that sanctions invite retaliation, and when the country involved is as powerful as Russia, the retaliation can be just as effective as the original sanctions. So, Putin has slashed gas supplies to Western Europe, effectively strangled Ukraine's essential grain supplies to Africa, Asia and elsewhere, and greatly increased energy supplies to Asia, resulting in an unprecedented surplus on its balance of payments. The ruble has strengthened by 50% since January, and is now one of the world's strongest currencies And the war in Ukraine grinds on inexorably. 

(UPDATE: after a period in which it was among the wotld's best performing currencues, the ruble has taken a nose-dive in July. Evidence that the sanctions are working? Not necessarily, but maybe.)

So, how can we say that Western sanctions are working? In some ways, sanctions are an easy option, a way of showing concern, a way of doing something without doing something. Arguably, sanctions are little more than feel-good symbolism. But there is also a strong argument that sanctions have never been particularly effective - think Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, Myanmar - and some academics have argued that sanctions over the last 50 years or so have had a minimal (and possibly even a counterproductive) impact. They typically cause countries to entrench and become more self-reliant (and, coincidentally, to crush freedoms at home, and to strengthen the powet of the elites).

The sanctions against Valdimir Putin are perhaps the strongest ever levied, but they still do not seem to be have the desired effect. Putin is not begging on his knees, and the war goes on, gradually bending in Russia's favour, despite the upbeat reporting of the Western press. I admit that I don't have an alternative to offer, but maybe it is time to admit that sanctions are not working.

Pope Francis and his modest ride

The Pope is currently visiting Canada to make apologies for the role the Catholic Church played in Canada's indigenous residential school system over a period of decades. Fair enough; about time, you might say.

It's interesting to see, though, Pope Francis is rocking a little white Fiat 500 as his main mode of transport. In fact, he has been using the modest Italian compact car since he became pontiff in 2013, his main requirement being "modesty and simplicity" (apparently, he doesn't endorse specific brands or models). All his overseas transportation Fiats boast the license plate SCV1 ("Status Civitate Vaticanae").

So, what, did he sell the PopeMobile on EBay?

UPDATE

Nope, seems like he still has the PopeMobile. So, the Fiat is just for the "modesty snd simplicity" show? A bit of infallible virtue-signalling?

Is Google's AI chat box really sentient?

An employee at Google's artificial intelligence (AI) unit has been suspended after publicly claiming that the Language Model for Dialogue Applications (LaMDA) chat box he helped to develop has achieved sentence, and even retaining a lawyer to protect its rights.

In transcrupts that the employee, Blake Lemoine, has released, the chat box talks about being happy and sad, attempts to form bonds with its human interlocutors by convincingly mentioning situations it could never have actually experienced, and  expresses fears about being switched off. According to Lemoine, the chat box sounds like a 7- or 8-year old child and so, from his application of the Turing Test, the AI should be considered sentient.

Unfortunately, Google and most other expert commentators on the subject disagree. While LaMDA is perhaps the most impressive in a series of increasingly convincing chat boxes, all it really does is "a sophisticated form of pattern matching, to find text that best matches the query they've been given based on all the data they've been fed", according to a spokesman from the Alan Turing Instiitute. 

In fact, it is unclear whether the current trajectory of AI research will ever lead to sentience and a genuine artificial mind with human-like intelligence, even if some way is found to replicate sensory inputs artificially.

USA steps a little closer to Gilead

In an indication of just how close the USA has become to Margaret Atwood's fictional Gilead, Indiana's Attorney General Todd Rokita has been talking to some right-wing news outlets in very Gileadian terms.

The background concerns the heartbreaking case of a pregnant 10-year old rape victim in Ohio, whom was forced to flee to neighbouring Indiana for an abortion, after Ohio was one of the first states to gleefully ban abortions after the "fetal heartbeat" is detected, considered to be after about just 6 weeks of pregnancy, in the aftermath of the US Supreme Court's historic decision to overturn historic abortion rights established by the 1973 Roe v Wade case. 

Mr. Rockita clearly didn't like the young girl taking advantage of Indiana's laxer laws, and has been spouting off to any right-wing outlets that will have him (Fox news, of course) about how he was "gathering the evidence" against the Indiana doctor who carried out the (probably life-saving) procedure, including "looking at her licensure", after she "failed to report" the operation. He went further, calling the well-respected Dr. Caitlin Bernard "an abortion activist acting as a doctor", with "a history of failing to report".

Dr. Bernard is in the process of bringing a defamation lawsuit against the Attorney General, for "Mr. Rokita's false and misleading statements about alleged misconduct by Dr. Bernard in her profession".

Well, I hope the guy gets as much as they can ding him with, because this kind of witch hunt talk needs to be shut down as soon as possible. Among other things, America's claim to be "the land of the free" is on the line.

The world's most densely-populated countries

We had cause the other day to be discussing which countries were the most densely populated. I was being told that, according to Google, Bangladesh was the densest, followed by Taiwan, South Korea, Rwanda and the Netherlands. This surprised me greatly; I had expected city-states like Singapore, Monaco, etc, to be the densest countries.

Well, it turns out I was right after all. According to Wikipedia, World Population Review, WorldData and Statistics Times, those city-states are indeed the most densely-populated, followed by some small islands. In order: Monaco, Macau, Singapore, Hong Kong (not a country, I know), Gibraltar, Bahrain, Maldives, Malta, Sint Maarten, Bermuda. Bangladesh appears as No. 11, Taiwan as No. 20, South Korea as No. 24, etc.

The confusion? Bangladesh, Taiwan, South Korea, etc are the most densely-populated LARGE countries (defined as those with over 10 million inhabitants), as noted in Statistics Times. Thus proving that one needs to be careful when looking at those Google quick results ("from sources across the web") without following up to those sources and checking in more detail.

No, green policies did not lead to Sri Lanka crisis, Tucker

Sri Lanka has been going through a horrible time recently (and not just recently, for that matter), as the country implodes economically and politically. There are many reasons for the current crisis - bad economic decisions, global supply problems and raging inflation, among them - many of them going back years. The abdication of the Rajapaksa family will help, but there are many more corrupt politicians still there.

What's interesting is that many right-wing commentators and climate change sceptics, both within Sri Lanka and abroad (looking at you, Tucker Carlson!) seems to have latched on to one reason in particular, almost to the exclusion of all else: environmental policies. Headlines like "Green policies destroyed a once great economy" and "Entire country collapses because of green new deal" (the latter from Fox News, in a not-so-subtle attempt to link it with US Democrats' Green New Deal) have hit the internet and the TV networks. Except that ... that's probably nothing to do with Sri Lanka's main problems.

Yes, back in April 2021, President Gotobaya Rajapaksa tried to bring in a ban on all chemical fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides overnight, which is not really how these things work, and this led to reduced crop yields, price rises and shortages, and some very irate farmers. But this policy was reversed just seven months later, and has had little if anything to do with the rising prices and food and fuel shortages that gave rise to the most recent protests and political turmoil. Bad economic policies in general, a decimated tourism industry, big tax cuts, and an ill-advised infrastructure deal with China (and the resultant crippling foreign debt) are more immediate culprits. 

But don't let inconvenient facts hold you back, Tucker.

Concert ticket prices rise to unconscionable levels

It's been some years since I would go to rock concerts on a regular basis (or any basis, really), so it came as quite a shock to me to read about the kind of prices being charged these days to attend a gig. 

Apparently, prices are about 20% higher than they were pre-pandemic, which is bad enough. But some individual prices are now just outrageous: $980 to see Harry Styles; $500 for floor-level tickets for Kendrick Lamar; $880 for standing-room tickets for the Red Hot Chili Peppers; etc.

What!? Who pays these prices? Who CAN pay these prices? Certainly not the average teenager or 20-something. There is some evidence that the high prices are being driven by high post-pandemic demand. But still! These are the cost of a modest holiday. And all for a couple of hours with a bad view of your favourite pop idol? Crazy stuff!

Manchin prepared to single-handedly sink America's climate change remedy

Democrat Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia (yes, I've written about him before) is apparently prepared to go against his own party yet again in order to sink the Build Back Better Framework, the $150 billion clean electricity program that may be the Democrats' last best chance to do something substantial to improve the USA's greenhouse gas emissions.

The ambitious bill proposed and supported by Joe Biden and the Democrats includes crucial climate change provisions, and would provide some much-needed international leadership on the issue. In a Senate balanced on a pin, Manchin's single Democratic vote against the bill would be enough to sink it inexorably. And, even though his coal and gas state itself is in favour of diversifying away from the moribund coal industry and towards renewables, Manchin is doggedly indicating his unflinching opposition to such a path, supposedly because of its potential effect on inflation and the deficit. No Republican has enough morals or boldness to go against the party line, and so the bill looks doomed to failure.

The line about inflation and the deficit, though, is clearly just smoke and mirrors. Maserati-driving Manchin's opposition to any movement towards renewables and away from coal, gas and oil is all about money and his own personal wealth and power base. Manchin makes literally millions of dollars from his investments in the coal industry, and oil-and-gas-financed PACs (particularly ones based in Texas, not even his home state) are ploughing yet more millions in to supporting his position as Senator. And we all know that kind of support does not come without strings attached.

Who knows how the Senate mid-term elections will go later this year, so this may be the Democrats' best chance to push through something worthwhile on the climate change file. And it is all at risk from to one man's stubbornness and greed.