Canada looks to the east to replace the south

Canada's - or, more specifically, Mark Carney's - push for closer relations with the European Union makes perfect sense given what is happening with Canada-US trade relations.

While it's still not clear what "associate membership" of the EU might mean, or whether the 28-member bloc would even agree to what Ursula von der Leyen is proposing, Canada could certainly do a lot worse than to align itself closer with the EU (and some of the more civilized parts of Asia, Australasia, etc).

But wait, doesn't Canada already have a free trade agreement with the European Union? Well, kind of. The EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, thankfully abbreviated to CETA, was officially signed in October 2016, and entered into "provisional application" in September 2017. CETA eliminates duties on 99% of all tariff lines between the EU and Canada.

Which begs the question of what "provisional application" actually means. The full treaty required the official ratification of all 27 EU member states, which, as you might imagine, is a difficult thing to achieve. Currently, 17 of the 27 EU countries have ratified the agreement, with 10 countries still holding out nearly a decade later: Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland and Slovenia. Of these, France and Italy are probably the most important. Opposition by these hold-out countries largely focusses on: the dispute settlement system; its impact on national sovereignty, agricultural and commercial interests; food safety; consumer and worker rights; public services; and environmental and sustainable development.

Notwithstanding those reservations, the agreement is effectively in force now, and has been for the last decade. So, it's hard to know what else Canada wants from the EU (and vice versa). Ms. Von der Leyen has talked about an "Alliance for the Future", covering defence, energy, technology, critical minerals and the Arctic. This clearly goes much further than the current trade agreement. Carney has also talked about a "unique alliance" that extends beyond a conventional free trade deal.

But Mr. Carney has stressed that he is not looking to become a full member of the EU, with all the incumbent duties and costs (and some potential loss of national sovereignty and independence). The "associate member" status - which currently does not exist - presumably reflects this compromise.

Either way, it seems to be annoying the hell out of Donald Trump, so that's something. He calls it a "hostile act" done with "bad intentions" (nothing is "done" as yet), and is clearly rattled by the project of Canada taking its business and its loyalties elsewhere.