This is not the next pandemic

People can be forgiven for having panicky flashbacks to the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak six years ago (yes, six years!) But, rest assured, scientists tell us that this is a very diffferent situation.

The outbreak of hantavirus on a Dutch cruise ship in the South Atlantic is a localized concern, and being dealt with in a rational, sensible way. As a World Health Organization spokesperson puts it, "This is not COVID, this is not influenza, it spreads very, very differently". This particular variant of hantavirus, known as the Andes Virus for its origins in Argentina, can spread from human to human, unlike most hantaviruses that require exposure to the urine, feces or saliva of infected rats and other rodents. But it does not spread easily, and requires extended close-quarters or intimate exposure.

It is thought (but not proven) that the first victim may have caught the virus while birdwatching at a garbage dump outside of Ushuaia, Argentina (birders!), before boarding the ship. He passed it on to his wife and then others, both husband and wife ultimately dying, along with a German woman. Thus far, a total of eight passengers on the small cruise ship have been infected, five confirmed by testing, three suspected. However, the incubation period can be as long as four to six weeks, so it is quite possible that more cases will show, especially given that, until the illness was diagnosed, passengers were eating, socializing and interacting together as usual.

Hantaviruses like the Andes variant cause generic flu-like symptoms (fatigue, fever, muscle aches, occasionally diarrhea and vomiting), which can make it hard to diagnose. In some patients it can then progress into a severe, sometimes deadly, respiratory infection. The death rate may be as high as 30-40%, although it is probably much lower than that in practice. There is currently no specific treatment or vaccine available, but medical care (including ventilators) can help.

Unlike COVID-19 when it arrived, hantaviruses are relatively well-known and studied. They do not spread or mutate as quickly and easily as COVID. The hundred or so passengers on the cruise ship who may have been exposed to the virus are being monitored closely, and are being asked to stay in their cabins, which have been thoroughly disinfected. The remaining passengers will disembark at Tenerife, in the Spanish Canary Islands, where they will be isolated and medically assessed.

However, about 25 passengers have already disembarked at the South Atlantic island of Saint Helena, from where they have already dispersed to a dozen or so countries including Turkey, Singapore, New Zealand and the United States (you can fly to all those places from Saint Helena?) These passengers have been contacted, and their national health authorities will make the decisions about monitoring and quarantining.

So, worthy of close attention? Sure. Time to panic? Absolutely not.