Where are we with those tariffs?

With all the comings and goings and ins and outs, and all the misinformation coming from south of the border, it's hard to know where we are with Trump's tariffs. An Associated Press article tries to make some sense of it.

Trump's overnight pivot from free trade to protectionism has resulted in double-digit taxes on American imports from pretty much everywhere, which has strained the budgets of consumers and businesses across the world, but especially in America. It has upended the global supply chain, and produced one of the most turbulent economic years in living memory.

With all the comings and goings, it's hard to get an idea of the overall "effective" tariff rate on US imports. The Budget Lab at Yale University have crunched the numbers for us, and it seems that number is currently at around 17%, about seven times high than before Trump got going at the start of this year, but not as high as mid-year.

Those tariffs have indeed raised lots of money, as Trump keeps reminding us, about $236 billion up to the end of November. But this still remains a small fraction of overall government revenue, and nothing like enough to replace federal income taxes, as Trump also claims. In fact, much of it will probably go to subsidizing US farmers for the sharp decrease in their incomes.

And yes, it has all had some effect on the US trade deficit, the single main reason for the tariffs according to Trump, but perhaps not as much as you (or he) might expect. In fact, the deficit got worse in the first quarter of the year, as panicked American companies tried to get ahead of the main tariff impositions, before settling back to around $50-$60 billion a month. Certainly, the increased tariff revenue does not come close to offsetting the trade deficit, which was also an oft-stated goal.

Imports from America's main trading partners have shifted a bit as a result of all the horse-trading that had been going on (and continues to go on). Imports from China have fallen a lot, and those from Canada a little bit; imports from Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan, though, have increased (the latter two substantially).

So, was any of this worth all the agony, stress and disruption it has caused? Probably not. Trump would never admit that, of course. Although his popularity ratings are taking a significant hit as the effects of his tariffs start to be felt, a lot of MAGA Republicans - probably most of whom were free trade enthusiasts before they were hoodwinked and gaslit into being protectionists - still have implicit faith in the Trump method. It's a strange world we live in, particularly those unfortunate enough to live in the United States.