US "peace plan" for Ukraine is a complete sell-out to Russia

The United States has come up with a 28-point "peace plan" for Ukraine, which is suspiciously similar to Russia's surrender offer from over 2 years ago. In fact, there are suggestions that it was literally authored by Russia and handed over to the US to push through. The plan was hatched by US "special envoy" Steve Witkoff (actually a property developer) and Russia's "special envoy" Kirill Dmitriev (actually a Moscow businessman, often described as "ruthlessly ambitious"); Ukraine was not asked to contribute.

Some US senators are saying that this is nothing like the US's agreed plans for Ukraine, and that Trump is just pushing any old thing to get any sort of "peace", even if it favours the aggressor, just like his plan for Gaza. Trump still wants that elusive Nobel Peace prize, at almost any cost. He is trying to get it by bullying and blackmailing Ukraine into a disastrous "peace" by threatening to withhold American arms and other assistance in this illegal war.

Roughly, the Trump-Witkoff plan involves:

• Official US recognition of Russia's hold on Crimea and the whole of the Donbas region, including parts that they do not even hold militarily after two-and-a half years of war, plus those parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions it currently holds.
• Russia rejoining the G7 group, from which they were ejected after the annexation of Crimea.
• Full amnesty for Russian war crimes throughout the war, and a dropping of the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for Putin on war crimes charges.
• The capping of Ukraine's military at a level much lower than currently (so that they are less able to respond to future Russian incursions?)
• A vague promise of a family reunification plan for the thousands of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia during the war.
• The lifting of restrictions on Russian television channels in Ukraine, and on the influential Russian Orthodox Church.
• Prohibiting Ukraine from joining NATO.

(Here's a more comprehensive list of the provisions.)

Does Ukraine get anything from this deal? Some ill-defined "reliable security guarantees" from the US, is about all. And would you trust the Trump administration on that?

If you thought that Trump's bromance with Putin was over, you might want to think again: this is another love letter to Putin. It is a  veritable rubber-stamping of Russia's wish list with regard to Ukraine. It is a much worse deal for Ukraine than any previous offers, and the pressure to accept is ramped up. Ukraine is left with a stark choice: accept a deal that looks very much like total surrender, or continue to fight a war it is slowly losing.

And the timing? Deliberately to take advantage of a corruption scandal in Zelensky's inner circle, that puts Zelensky on the defensive, and makes his acceptance of any old deal more likely (although still very unlikely - if he were to sell Ukraine out to Trump's deal, his presidency is toast).