US-EU trade "deal" - is this what Canada can expect?

Donald Trump happened to be in Scotland, playing on one of his golf courses, and he thought that might be a good time to finalize a deal with the EU, some time between the top and bottom nine.

So, he forced Ursula von der Leyen, probably the most powerful woman in the world, to schlepp over to the wilds of Scotland - Scotland! not even in the EU! - to be dictated to on economics and world affairs by a man who doesn't really understand them, but who happens to be in a position of incredible power and able to get pretty much whatever he wants.

Ms. von der Leyen pretended to be very happy with her deal - it was better than the Philippines got, after all - but inwardly she must have been fuming. 

15% on pretty much everything (up from about 2.2%), 50% on steel and aluminum, as well as a commitment to invest $600 billion in the US, and purchase an unspecified amount of American energy and military equipment? Doesn't have the look of a great deal, but what is she to say? The phrase "lipstick on a pig" springs to mind.

And, as usual, it's not even a "deal", more of a "framework", and Trump could still change it and impose whatever he wants. Much remains to be clarified and further negotiated - details that are beneath Trump's interest.

Is this what Canada can expect when its August 1st deadline rolls around? The US "deals" with Japan, UK and other countries have been broadly similar in nature to the EU's, with some changes of emphasis, some differences in the tariff levels, different carve-out, different burdens.

Given that Trump considers Canada "difficult", "mean" and "nasty" - wow, pot call the kettle black much! - a deal like the EU's is probably the best we can expect. I would expect Trump to drive a harder bargain with Canada than he did with the EU, even though Canada is not as important an exporter to the US.as Canada. Although Trump's bluster about not actually needing anything from Canada is clearly BS, we are not as important to the US as they are to us (trade-wise, at least).

As much as anything, Canada, like most other countries, just wants this whole thing resolved, for the uncertainty to end. Of course, that is also part of Trump's "art of the deal" - grind the victim down until they will accept pretty much anything.

Mark Carney talks a good game about not accepting any deal that is not in Canada's best interests. But we all know that is just talk. Carney is not in a position to dictate anything. He will get what he's given, and he will try to put a good face on it. Just like Ursula von der Leyen.