Thursday, August 10, 2023

Canada has too few EVs and the US has too many

There was an opinion piece in the Globe and Mail recently, which seems to based on an article from EnergyPortal.eu (a Britain-based operation, despite the .eu website, and one I am not familiar with, nor their political bias).

The gist of the article is that, while there is a shortage of electric vehicles (EVs) and long wait times (up to 2 years or more) in Canada, there is a surplus of unsold EVs just south of the border, in the USA. 

The shortage of car stocks and long wait times in Canada is well-documented, although usually attributed to a shortage of semi-conductors or lithium for batteries, attributions that don't always ring true to me. It seems to me just as likely that there has been unexpectedly strong demand in Canada for which auto producers were just not prepared. Another suggestion in the article is that the profit margins on EVs are not as large as those on ICE vehicles, and so there is little incentive for automakers to boost output to meet consumer demand in Canada (although I have no evidence of this).

What mainly flummoxed me, though, was the claim that there is a glut of unsold inventory in the US. As the author puts it, "news about unsold EVs piling up in U.S. car dealerships has raised questions about whether the market for EVs has stalled". Where is this news? I have not seen it. He attributes the slow sales to concerns about battery range, charging infrastructure, or borrowing costs, but who knows? Is it even real?

Well, when I investigated more closely, it seems that indeed there is a problem with sales and inventory of EVs in America. GM, Hyundai and Toyota all have over 90 days worth of EV inventory sitting in their dealerships, and Volkswagen as much as 131 days' worth. US dealers in general have more than three times the stocks of EVs they had just a year ago.

Another article points out that foreign brands like Audi, Kia, Hyundai and Nissan are not eligible for tax credits in the US, and neither are some more expensive luxury models like the GMC Hummer, and this may be hurting their sales.

So, it seems to be a real phenomenon: Canada has too few EVs available and the US has too many. Oh, wait, there's a really easy solution there ...

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