What's in a name? On a ballot sheet, quite a lot

Tontonto votes for a new mayor soon - advanced polling had already begun - after the ignominious exit of the last one.

There are an extraordinary 102 candidates standing for election for the one post (see a full list here). Imagine that many people having the self-confidence, the chutzpah, to stand up in front of millions of people and elucidate their vision for the city! I find it extraordinary.

This will, however, make navigating the ballot sheet something of a trial. Add to that the fact that, in 102 names there are a bunch of duplicate, or near-duplucate, names to further confuse the issue. For example, there are two Singh's, Knia and Partap Dua; there are two Atkinson's, Darren and Jamie;  there is an Alam and an Allan; a Frank D'Amico and a Frank D'Angelo. Even within the top seven front-runners there is some possible confusion, with a Chow and a Choy, and a Saunders and a Sanders. So, people are going to have to be quite careful in the polling station.

The very fact of there being such a long list means that scrolling down and finding your particular desired candidate, and remembering who that was, could present problems. Studies suggest that a candidate's position on the ballot sheet has a significant influence on their likelihood of being elected. To quantify this, the difference between the likelihood of winning between the last name and the first is as much as 10%. The advantage of being the first-named of two candidates with the same second name is even greater, at 20%. 

It reminds me of the old days of thumbing through the Yellow Pages, and encountering AAA Body Shop, AAAA Legal Services, etc. There really is an advantage to being at the top of the list, and some people will just not bother scrolling through the list, and will just hit on the first name they like the look of, or maybe remember from advertising campaigns. 

So, Olivia Chow has a distinct advantage over Mark Saunders (thankfully!). But unfortunately, Ana Bailao and Brad Bradford have the jump on Olivia Chow. Presumably, Bahia Abdulsalam, whoever he or she is, has an advantage over all of these, whatever policies he or she may espouse. Not how democracy is supposed to work, but welcome to the real world.