How popular are the Taliban in Afghanistan?

As disturbing images and videos of desperate Afghans fleeing a newly Taliban-ruled Afghanistan crowd our screens - people clinging to, and falling from, the outside of a departing American transport aircraft being perhaps the most disturbing of all - the impresssion we are left with is that Afghans hate the Taliban and will go to almost any length to escape them. There have already been many protests and demostrations against the Taliban coup (and several deaths as a result), but these are the bravest of the brave, remember, people who are literally risking their lives, and not a good metric of how much grass-roots opposition there really is.

So, just how popular are the Taliban within the country, really? Well, this is far from clear, and there seems no way to obtain an objective view of it. Taliban spokesmen say they weren't surprised at the speed of their occupation after the Americans pulled out, "because we have roots among the people, because it was a popular uprising of the people". But forgive me for not having much faith in the Taliban propaganda machine.

The Taliban is essentially a brutal Islamic fundamentalist army, with an estimated 85,000 members according to NATO estimates, in a country of around 38 million. But how many of that 38 million actually approve of the Taliban's methods, or even of their stated goal of establishing an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan, along with strict Sharia law and the institutionalized oppression of women? How many would be comfortable providing a safe haven for al-Qaida, ISIS and other terrorist organizations (because you just know that is going to happen)?

If most Afghans were in fact in favour of those ideas and ideals, then you could argue that we should just leave them to their own little theocratic dystopia, however inimical to our western ideas and ideals it may be. But I have tried, and failed, to get any inkling of that. 

Although the Taliban have been comparatively restrained thus far, at least compared to most people's expectations, many Afghans are clearly anxious and afraid. There have already been some reprisals against people known to have been pro-American. As one man commented, "We have to smile at them because we are scared, but deeply we are unhappy". You have to think that most women and girls in the country must be doubly apprehensive, given the hardline marginalizing, anti-woman philosophy underpinning the Taliban, and there have already been a few examples of women being summarily removed from their jobs. The schooling of young women over the age of ten will certainly soon be a thing of the past in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. And, despite Taliban protestations that they are a reformed, much more moderate force than in their 1990s heyday, reprisals and targeted killings are starting to occur with increasing frequency.

But a good profile of what the general public really feel about the Taliban is difficult, perhaps even impossible, given the closed nature of the country, the poor communications within the country, and the general fear of Taliban reprisals. The best I could find was a 2020 Flash Survey by the Asia Foundation, which concluded that, at that time anyway: fewer than half of respondents believed that peace was achievable in the country within two years; a substantial majority (nearly 90%) were unwilling to accept a peace agreement that compromised women's rights (such as the right of women and girls to attend school); and there was strong support for women in leadership roles. 

If that does indeed serve as a snapshot of Afghan attitudes, then Taliban policies (being diametrically opposed to those attitudes) are unlikely to please most people, and they are therefore being coerced along a path not of their own choosing.

UPDATE

So much for the Taliban's reform. They now occupy and rule by force and intimidation a country in deep crisis: poverty, fear, displacement, overwhelmed healthcare facilities, closed schools. Sounds like the old Taliban to me.

UPDATE UPDATE

Seems like the "kinder, gentler" Taliban are also bringing back executions and amputations which are apparently "necessary for security".