The office experience will probably never be the same

COVID-19 has upended much of what we thought we knew, not least in the area of commerce and employment. It turns out that office workers working from home can work, and work very well.

Huge organizations, like banks, telecoms and insurance companies, have switched, almost overnight, to a remote, work-from-home culture, and the sky didn't fall. Meetings went ahead (albeit virtually), decisions got made, and the work got done, usually without the general public being able to tell the difference.

There was a time when business managers just assumed that working from home reduced productivity, and so was to be avoided as far as possible, even if it would have made the employees happier. Then, a little-known 2010 study at China's largest travel agency, Ctrip, produced some unexpected result. It turns out that productivity actually increased, substantially, when people worked from home, although employees were less content, mainly because they were lonely and missed the physical human interaction. Basically, contrary to expectations, the bosses liked the arrangement more than their employees did. 

This study turned the conventional wisdom on its head, and the experience of companies during the current pandemic has only served to confirm the study's findings, and with a hugely bigger sample group. Which raises the very real question of what the office landscape will look like post-pandemic. Several major tech companies have already bitten the bullet and committed to a more home-based future, and several major banks are also publicly musing about what percentage (30%? 50%? 80%?) of their employees will continue working from home, at least part-time, when the virus subsides. 

This will have some profound effects, and not just on the businesses involved. It will change many things, from the design of our cities and the value of real estate to road and transit usage to the participation of the disabled and the rural in the labour market to the way we organize our days. The big property developers are continuing to build new skyscrapers in downtown Toronto, but it's less clear that companies will want to occupy them. Most businesses will jump at a chance to save office costs, so many employees may be forced to work from home against their will. It's hard to believe but "office workers" may soon be nostalgic for the very cubicles and water-coolers they used to complain about. Indeed, a majority seem to be quite keen to return to their old office routines, if only for the social aspect and after-work socializing (particularly important for younger people).
But another aspect is that most people's homes are just not designed for 9-to-5 working, and many lack air conditioning, ergonomic chairs and big-screen computers. And another issue is that, if home used to be a relaxing sanctuary from the demands and stresses of work, that home-work split would no longer exist, which may have all sorts of mental health implications. There are also concerns that innovation may suffer in the absence of in-person collaborations and brainstorming sessions.
It seems likely to me that a hybrid, part-time work-from-home system may become popular, combined with desk-sharing and co-working, which would allow companies to make cost savings and benefit from inproved productivity, while still allowing employees to socialize and exercise their innovation juices. But one thing is for certain: life in the office will never be the same.