Saturday, March 28, 2020

Bolsonaro is even more of a crisis denier than Trump

If you think that Donald Trump and Boris Johnson's leadership of their countries' responses to the COVID-19 pandemic is bad, spare a thought for the poor Brazilians. Populist leader Jair Bolsonaro was always going to be bad news for Brazil, and he has proven pretty disastrous so far. But he has managed to outdo himself by his response (or lack thereof) to the coronovirus outbreak.
He has consistently downplayed the virus, calling it "a little flu", and insisting that Brazil's tropical climate and Brazilians' "natural immunity" will protect them. He has said that measures to contain the virus are quite unnecessary, and has called efforts by the state governors to protect people "criminal", and is blaming them for wrecking the country's economy. Like Donald Trump - and he has made no bones about the fact that he models himself on Trump, and he clearly takes many of his cues from the American president - he has touted the benefits of the malaria drug chloroquine in combatting the virus, despite a complete lack of supporting evidence, and indications that it may actually be just plain dangerous.
It's hard to know whether Bolsonaro is actually stupid, or whether he just has an incredibly oversized ego and really poor judgement. He is essentially in complete denial about the virus that is ravaging the planet, and his own country (Brazil already has nearly 4,000 cases and 100 deaths, despite a relatively late start). And the Brazilian people - despite having voted in Bolsonaro - are not stupid: according to polls, 73% support total isolation to deal with the virus, and many more support the efforts of thise state governors who ARE trying to deal with it than support Bolsonaro's policies. 25 of the 27 state governors are in favour of strong anti-virus measures, and have instituted bans on public gatherings, closed schools, and called for strict social distancing, regardless of their president's exhortations.
So, what is Bolsonaro's game? Some commentators think he is just trying to shift the blame for a poor economy from himself and onto the state governors. But some believe he is looking towards the next election, which is still more than two years away, and that he is banking on voters being more impressed with a strong functioning economy at the cost of x lives (fill in the blank) than a basket-case economy and fewer deaths. This seems like a foolish and dangerous gamble, and the likelihood is that there will be both many deaths AND a decimated economy to deal with, whatever Bolsonaro says right now.
So, maybe it comes back to the previous question: maybe he is actually stupid.

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