How Trump hopes to control the WTO

If you had any doubts at all whether Donald Trump is against trade regulations in any shape or form, your doubts will have been definitively put to rest as he makes his move against the World Trade Organization (WTO) itself. Given that the USA is currently defending itself against a bunch of major WTO cases, including against Canada and China, this could be a big deal.

The WTO is the intergovernmental organization that has attempted to regulate international trade since its founding in 1995. It has 164 member countries, and 23 more with observer status. It is not a perfect organization, but it is the only body that is willing to put itself out there and mediate in some if the world's thorniest trade disputes. Frankly, it is the best we have.

Unfortunately, in recent months, the WTO finds itself in something of a parlous state. It nominally has seven appeal judges from various different parts of the world, but it is currently down to four, with one of those due to be re-appointed on September 30th. Since the start if his term of office, Trump has effectively blocked all appointments to the body as existing judges' terms come to an end. If he also blocks the appointment on September 30th, the chamber will be down to three, the minimum number required for the dispute-resolution system to function.

Trump maintains that the USA loses too many WTO appeals cases because other countries have most of the judges. "Not fair!", "Sad!", you know the kind of thing. Except that, as usual, he has all his facts wrong. The US has a similar, if not better, win-lose rate to other countries, and research shows that the US wins about 90% of the WTO cases in which it is the appellant, and loses about the same percentage when other bring cases against it. Also, the WTO appellate body has always had at least one American on it, which is more than any other country can say. So, if anything, the US is over-represented and overly successful.

One can only conclude that Trump is looking to reduce the chamber to a group of three that the American member can more effectively control. Fair? I'll leave you to decide.

 

UPDATE

In his usual throwaway style, Trump told Bloomberg news that he would happily just leave the WTO completely if the US doesn't win more cases: "If they don't shape up, I would withdraw from the WTO". He is particularly concerned about a Chinese WTO claim against the US after Trump imposed new tariffs on them. He might have added, "Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair".