Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Saudi Arabia getting out of the oil business?

I don't often have much good to say about Saudi Arabia, one of the world's great pariah states, but a radical and ambitious new plan they are calling Vision 2030 certainly made me sit up and pay attention.
The report is the responsibility of the Saudi defence minister, second in line to the Saudi throne, and favoured son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (Deputy Crown Prince is such a strange title, but then this is, after all, a strange country). In a news conference to launch the plan, he openly accused his own country of being addicted to oil. "We have developed a case of oil addiction in Saudi Arabia," he said. Pretty clear, pretty damning, and pretty revolutionary in Saudi terms. Much of the report details the ways in which the country can wean itself off oil completely, which it recognizes as an old, potentially obsolete, technology. Canadian politicians and businessmen could learn a lesson or two here.
Prince Mohammed claims that Saudi Arabia "can live without oil by 2020". Given that some 77% of the country's revenues come from oil, this is ambitious to say the very least, and many commentators (including Saudi businessmen) see it as just pie-in-the-sky implausible and impractical. But with oil prices less than half of what they were just a couple of years ago - a situation largely brought on by Saudi Arabia itself - the country needs to do something pretty dramatic to stem the bleeding of its economy (it may have deep pockets, but they are not infinite).
Among the reforms Prince Mohammed is recommending is the sale of 5% of state-owned oil company Aramco, the proceeds to go towards establishing a $2 trillion "sovereign wealth fund". Given that Saudi Aramco is the world's largest company - reportedly worth about $2.5 trillion, way larger than Apple, Microsoft and Google/Alphabet put together - this would make it by far the largest IPO ever, and could have huge repercussions on world markets. Other economic reforms in the report include moves to diversify the economy, increased investment in mineral mining, and the expansion (and possibly privatization) of Saudi military production, this latter a worrisome trend for many.
Another recommendation is to reduce or even completely remove the huge subsidies that make Saudi gasoline prices some of the cheapest in the world (currently around 32c/litre).  As an indication of how this might play out, water and electricity subsidies have recently been removed, much to the consternation of many, although the prince insists that he is keen to make sure that the poor do not suffer due to the reforms. New public transit facilities in Riyadh and Jeddah are also underway already, as part of the attempt to wean people away from their reliance on gasoline.
Perhaps even more shocking, the report also recommends some (minor) social reforms as well, such as a new visa system to allow expatriate Muslims and Arabs to work long-term in Saudi Arabia, a relaxation of residency laws, and a move towards building affordable housing, collecting taxes, and even increasing the participation of women in the workforce.
Life in Saudi Arabia is perhaps not as idyllic as some people may think, at least for those outside the ultra-rich ruling class. It is a very rich country, but it is not necessarily full of rich people, and there is a huge gap between the rich and the regular people, especially those on public sector salaries. 50% of the Saudi population is less than 25 years old, and 70% under 30 (Prince Mohammed himself is only 30). Foreign workers make up about one-third of the population, and about two thirds of the actual work-force. Saudi social media is already rife with complaints from the local population that they are finding it difficult to pay their rent, or even to find a home. To maintain their old standard of living, many households now require two incomes, so there is increasing pressure to allow women to pull their weight in the workforce.
Changes of this magnitude will cause huge ripples in Saudi society and a massive upheaval in Saudi business circles. But it can only be seen as a positive shift in attitudes, and perhaps a reflection of a new generation in the Saudi ruling classes. Who knows, perhaps they will even let women drive there sometime soon?

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