Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Oil in freefall - the good, the bad and the ugly

As the price of oil continues its freefall (currently $56 a barrel and still falling), a variety of different responses can be heard in different places.
Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland (the major oil producing provinces) are wringing their hands with angst and righteous indignation, although few others have much sympathy for them, especially not for Alberta, which steadfastly refuses to institute a sales tax, and has salted away a puny amount of contingency funds from its many years of fat oil profits.
The federal government has severely downgraded its budget surplus forecasts (again), perhaps belatedly realizing that maybe an economy that lionizes oil almost to the exclusion of all else is not such a good idea after all. Or perhaps not.
One foreign investor after another is cancelling or putting on hold major planned investments in the Alberta oil sands, a mixed blessing to say the least given the environmental profile of the oil sands as a whole, and Canada's abysmal record on climate change initiatives.
Meanwhile, as gas pump prices locally fall below $1/litre, for the first time since I can't remember when (actually, I just checked: it was 2010, although it seems much longer), struggling businesses that rely heavily on transportation and power, especially the manufacturing industries of Ontario and Quebec which have had such a hard time in recent years, are getting a bit of a break, and motorists are relishing the (probably short-lived) breather.
But even this is not an unalloyed good. Apparently, the lower gas prices have already resulted in an increase in sales and orders of relatively gas-guzzling SUVs, which of course has environmentalists upset. And I am sure that the average Joe on the street is much less likely to think twice about taking the car to the local shops when gas prices are 99c/litre and not $1.40/litre.
It never ceases to amaze me how efficiently the open market can work sometimes, although usually not, it seems, in a socially and environmentally responsible direction.

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